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Dynex Capital Inc. (DX) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$10.89 +0.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.88

Dynex Capital Inc. (DX) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.83B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.88 (-0.09%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY DX SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$10.86+0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$10.93-0.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$10.92-0.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$10.89-0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the DX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, DX faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.71) or 200D SMA ($12.91) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.74) toward Bear Floor ($8.38).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “DX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

35.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE13% OF RANGE

L: $10$10.89H: $15

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on DX

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (55)

0.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 4.27% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (52)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like DX

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring DX)

✓Walkthrough of DX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

DX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.04%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $10.90H $10.97L $10.59C $10.89VOL 5.75M

RES: $12.43SUP: $9.85SMA50: $11.71SMA200: $12.91

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

DX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 DX Butterfly Map → + Track DX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DX)

Financials Rank #697 of 1096 ⚔️ DRH vs DX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (DX vs. DRH, AKR, CXW, PEB)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Dynex Capital Inc. (DX) ranks #697 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #377 by equity capitalization ($2.83B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DRH leads on earnings valuation at 29.2x trailing P/E, while DRH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.0% ROIC and — gross margin. DRH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with DX at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
DX ACTIVE Dynex Capital Inc.	D+	55/100	—	—	0.0%	+0.55%	$2.83B	Benchmark Subject
DRH Diamondrock Hospitality Company	C+	67/100	29.2x	—	7.0%	+1.40%	$2.96B	/drh-vs-dx →
AKR Acadia Realty Trust	C	63/100	155.0x	—	1.8%	+2.42%	$2.62B	/akr-vs-dx →
CXW CoreCivic Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	—	+1.47%	$3.07B	/cxw-vs-dx →
PEB Pebblebrook Hotel Trust of	D	46/100	—	—	1.5%	+1.16%	$2.45B	/peb-vs-dx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000826675

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Dynex Capital Inc. (DX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $319.1K, operating cash flow of $120.8M, and free cash flow of $120.8M (+739.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, DX closed FY2025 with $17.34B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$319.1K	$120.8M	$120.8M	$17.34B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$113.9M	$14.4M	$14.4M	$8.18B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$6.1M	$62.2M	$62.2M	—	—

3. DX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is DX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Dynex Capital Inc. (NYSE: DX) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $10.89 (+0.55% 1D, market cap $2.83B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, DX ranks #697 in composite RQD confidence.

How does DX compare to DRH and AKR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), DX carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 0.0%. By comparison, DRH (Diamondrock Hospitality Company) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 29.2x, ROIC 7.0%, cap $2.96B) and AKR (Acadia Realty Trust) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 155.0x, ROIC 1.8%, cap $2.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DRH leads on earnings multiple (29.2x) while DRH leads on capital efficiency (7.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DX?

Per DX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000826675), Dynex Capital Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $319.1K in net income, and $120.8M in free cash flow against $17.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is DX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

DX last traded at $10.89 (+0.55% on volume of 5,387,742 shares), positioning the stock -7.00% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.71) and -15.65% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.91). Across its 52-week range of $10.31 to $14.93, DX sits at the 12.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($10.28 to $11.50).

DX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell DX stock right now?

Dynex Capital Inc. (DX) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 55/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is DX's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

DX's 12-month base price target is $10.74 (range $8.38 to $15.68), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: DX RQD Cockpit DX 12M Forecast DX Earnings & Move DX Dividends & DRIP DX Insiders & 13F DX Whale Options DX Profit Sankey DX News & Why