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Ambiq Micro Inc. (AMBQ) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$53.80 -1.93% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $53.51

Ambiq Micro Inc. (AMBQ) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.30B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $53.51 (-0.54%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMBQ)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AMBQ SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (37% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 44.3% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$58.56-14.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$49.88+1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$50.36+6.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$53.80-7.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (46) → D- (38)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMBQ Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AMBQ currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($59.41) and Max Pain ($56.49) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $96.19.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMBQ• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AMBQ Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

34.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

26.00>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE46% OF RANGE

L: $22$53.80H: $92

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 9 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AMBQ

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

-35.0% ROIC with 44.3% gross margin and -1.51% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 26.00 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (25)

9/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AMBQ

✓Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMBQ)

✓Walkthrough of AMBQ's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AMBQ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +43.54%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $49.65H $53.80L $46.25C $53.80VOL 308.4K

RES: $77.84SUP: $45.97SMA50: $59.41SMA200: $53.68

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMBQ Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AMBQ Butterfly Map → + Track AMBQ →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -4.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMBQ today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMBQ. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMBQ today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMBQ)

Technology Rank #573 of 714 ⚔️ WOLF vs AMBQ Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (AMBQ vs. WOLF, SHLS, ICHR, AIP)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ambiq Micro Inc. (AMBQ) ranks #573 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #334 by equity capitalization ($1.30B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SHLS leads on earnings valuation at 37.8x trailing P/E, while SHLS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.5% ROIC and 35.0% gross margin. ICHR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with AMBQ at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AMBQ ACTIVE Ambiq Micro Inc.	D-	38/100	—	44.3%	-35.0%	-1.93%	$1.30B	Benchmark Subject
WOLF Wolfspeed Inc.	D-	42/100	—	—	0.7%	-6.34%	$1.32B	/wolf-vs-ambq →
SHLS Shoals Technologies Group Inc. (Class A)	D-	42/100	37.8x	35.0%	7.5%	-0.13%	$1.27B	/shls-vs-ambq →
ICHR Ichor Holdings	D	46/100	—	9.3%	-4.5%	-1.51%	$1.59B	/ichr-vs-ambq →
AIP Arteris Inc.	D-	38/100	—	90.2%	-35.0%	-3.92%	$1.01B	/aip-vs-ambq →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001500412

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ambiq Micro Inc. (AMBQ) reported GAAP revenue of $72.5M (-4.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $76.1M ) , GAAP net income of -$36.5M, operating cash flow of -$19.7M, and free cash flow of -$19.7M (+8.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMBQ closed FY2025 with $184.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$72.5M	-$36.5M	-$19.7M	-$19.7M	$184.7M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$76.1M	-$39.7M	-$21.4M	-$21.4M	$104.3M	—

3. AMBQ Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMBQ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Ambiq Micro Inc. (NYSE: AMBQ) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $53.80 (-1.93% 1D, market cap $1.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, AMBQ ranks #573 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AMBQ compare to WOLF and SHLS in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), AMBQ carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 44.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, WOLF (Wolfspeed Inc.) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.7%, cap $1.32B) and SHLS (Shoals Technologies Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E 37.8x, ROIC 7.5%, cap $1.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SHLS leads on earnings multiple (37.8x) while SHLS leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMBQ?

Per AMBQ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001500412), Ambiq Micro Inc. generated $72.5M in revenue (-4.7% YoY), -$36.5M in net income, and -$19.7M in free cash flow against $184.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AMBQ trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMBQ last traded at $53.80 (-1.93% on volume of 240,291 shares), positioning the stock -9.44% below its 50-day simple moving average ($59.41) and +0.22% above its 200-day simple moving average ($53.68). Across its 52-week range of $22.12 to $91.61, AMBQ sits at the 45.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($47.08 to $60.52).

AMBQ Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AMBQ stock right now?

Ambiq Micro Inc. (AMBQ) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 38/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AMBQ's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AMBQ's 12-month base price target is $48.96 (range $38.19 to $96.19), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: AMBQ RQD Cockpit AMBQ 12M Forecast AMBQ Earnings & Move AMBQ Dividends & DRIP AMBQ Insiders & 13F AMBQ Whale Options AMBQ Profit Sankey AMBQ News & Why