Stock Ratings / Health Care / XGN / financials

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Exagen Inc. (XGN) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

Q: Is XGN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ: XGN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $8.70 (+3.57% 1D, market cap $210.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, XGN ranks #921 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does XGN compare to TLSI and BDSX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), XGN carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 58.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TLSI (TriSalus Life Sciences Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $237.7M) and BDSX (Biodesix Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $260.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, XGN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while YDES leads on capital efficiency (-20.0% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XGN?

Per XGN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001274737), Exagen Inc. generated $66.6M in revenue (+19.7% YoY), -$20.0M in net income, and -$14.3M in free cash flow against $58.0M in total assets and $22.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is XGN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XGN last traded at $8.70 (+3.57% on volume of 378,382 shares), positioning the stock +9.85% above its 50-day simple moving average ($7.92) and +72.96% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.03). Across its 52-week range of $2.59 to $11.92, XGN sits at the 65.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($7.61 to $9.79).

Q: How profitable is Exagen Inc. (XGN)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), XGN converted $66.6M of revenue into a 58.3% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

$8.70 +3.57% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.74

Exagen Inc. (XGN) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $210.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.74 (+0.45%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for XGN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY XGN SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (32% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$8.42-8.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$7.72-5.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$7.27+19.7% Next Q

Current

Grade E$8.70-9.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (23) → E (31)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a XGN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While XGN currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.92) and Max Pain ($9.14) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.52.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $XGN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “XGN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 31%NO 69%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How XGN Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $52.5M

FY24

Rev $55.6M

FY25

Rev $66.6M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$66.6M	58.3%	-21.1%	-$20.0M	-$14.3M	-45%
FY 2024	$55.6M	59.5%	-24.5%	-$15.1M	-$13.8M	-45%
FY 2023	$52.5M	58.3%	-43.5%	-$23.7M	-$14.5M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring XGN)

✓Walkthrough of XGN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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XGN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +200.00%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $8.58H $8.70L $8.28C $8.70VOL 393.7K

RES: $10.09SUP: $7.21SMA50: $7.92SMA200: $5.03

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

XGN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 XGN Butterfly Map → + Track XGN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +19.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XGN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XGN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for XGN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (XGN)

Health Care Rank #921 of 1016 ⚔️ TLSI vs XGN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (XGN vs. TLSI, BDSX, BNR, YDES)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Exagen Inc. (XGN) ranks #921 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #567 by equity capitalization ($210.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, XGN leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while YDES leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -20.0% ROIC and 28.1% gross margin. BDSX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 44/100 (D) compared with XGN at 31/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
XGN ACTIVE Exagen Inc.	E	31/100	—	58.3%	-35.0%	+3.57%	$210.8M	Benchmark Subject
TLSI TriSalus Life Sciences Inc.	E	34/100	—	84.6%	-35.0%	-1.78%	$237.7M	/tlsi-vs-xgn →
BDSX Biodesix Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-35.0%	+8.14%	$260.8M	/bdsx-vs-xgn →
BNR Burning Rock Biotech Limited	E	23/100	—	74.7%	-35.0%	-9.87%	$116.5M	/bnr-vs-xgn →
YDES YD Bio Limited	D-	37/100	—	28.1%	-20.0%	-6.53%	$415.8M	/ydes-vs-xgn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001274737

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Exagen Inc. (XGN) reported GAAP revenue of $66.6M (+19.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $55.6M , and +26.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$20.0M, operating cash flow of -$13.6M, and free cash flow of -$14.3M (-3.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, XGN closed FY2025 with $58.0M in total assets against $22.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$66.6M	-$20.0M	-$13.6M	-$14.3M	$58.0M	$22.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$55.6M	-$15.1M	-$13.3M	-$13.8M	$44.7M	$19.8M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$52.5M	-$23.7M	-$14.5M	-$14.5M	—	—

3. XGN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is XGN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ: XGN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $8.70 (+3.57% 1D, market cap $210.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, XGN ranks #921 in composite RQD confidence.

How does XGN compare to TLSI and BDSX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), XGN carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 58.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TLSI (TriSalus Life Sciences Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $237.7M) and BDSX (Biodesix Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $260.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, XGN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while YDES leads on capital efficiency (-20.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XGN?

Per XGN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001274737), Exagen Inc. generated $66.6M in revenue (+19.7% YoY), -$20.0M in net income, and -$14.3M in free cash flow against $58.0M in total assets and $22.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is XGN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XGN last traded at $8.70 (+3.57% on volume of 378,382 shares), positioning the stock +9.85% above its 50-day simple moving average ($7.92) and +72.96% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.03). Across its 52-week range of $2.59 to $11.92, XGN sits at the 65.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($7.61 to $9.79).