Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / WINA / financials

RERE (47) SPH (64) REAL (46) WOOF (49) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Winmark Corporation (WINA) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$286.88 +1.38% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $287.05

Winmark Corporation (WINA) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.02B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $287.05 (+0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 51.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for WINA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY WINA SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 51.9% FCF Margin ($44.7M FCF) & 96.4% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$291.86+7.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$314.83-11.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$279.71+2.6% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$286.88+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (77) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the WINA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, WINA faces multiple-compression risk if 24.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 93.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($304.04) or 200D SMA ($378.53) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($301.08) toward Bear Floor ($234.84).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $WINA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “WINA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How WINA Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$44.7M (51.9% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $83.2M

FY24

Rev $81.3M

FY25

Rev $86.1M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$86.1M	96.4%	63.4%	$41.7M	$44.7M	95%
FY 2024	$81.3M	95.8%	65.1%	$40.0M	$42.0M	95%
FY 2023	$83.2M	92%	64%	$40.2M	$44.0M	84.5%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring WINA)

✓Walkthrough of WINA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

WINA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.60%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $290.1H $293.8L $280.8C $286.9VOL 125.4K

RES: $314.9SUP: $242.8SMA50: $304.0SMA200: $378.5

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

WINA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 WINA Butterfly Map → + Track WINA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

18.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on WINA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for WINA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for WINA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (WINA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #203 of 1011 ⚔️ RERE vs WINA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (WINA vs. RERE, SPH, REAL, WOOF)

Industry: Other Specialty Stores (42 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Winmark Corporation (WINA) ranks #203 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #508 by equity capitalization ($1.02B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SPH leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while WINA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 84.5% ROIC and 96.0% gross margin. WINA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
WINA ACTIVE Winmark Corporation	C+	69/100	24.5x	96.0%	84.5%	+1.38%	$1.02B	Benchmark Subject
RERE ATRenew Inc. (every three of which representing two ) (Class A)	D	47/100	18.8x	—	14.7%	+4.04%	$903.4M	/rere-vs-wina →
SPH Suburban Propane Partners L.P.	C	64/100	11.2x	60.6%	8.4%	+1.08%	$1.19B	/sph-vs-wina →
REAL The RealReal Inc.	D	46/100	—	74.6%	-27.4%	+2.62%	$1.38B	/real-vs-wina →
WOOF Petco Health and Wellness Company Inc. (Class A)	D	49/100	81.5x	38.7%	4.0%	+3.19%	$741.8M	/woof-vs-wina →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-27 • CIK 0000908315

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27), Winmark Corporation (WINA) reported GAAP revenue of $86.1M (+5.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $81.3M , and +3.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $41.7M, operating cash flow of $44.9M, and free cash flow of $44.7M (+6.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, WINA closed FY2025 with $24.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-27	$86.1M	$41.7M	$44.9M	$44.7M	$24.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$81.3M	$40.0M	$42.2M	$42.0M	$26.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$83.2M	$40.2M	$44.0M	$44.0M	—	—

3. WINA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is WINA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Winmark Corporation (NASDAQ: WINA) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $286.88 (+1.38% 1D, market cap $1.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, WINA ranks #203 in composite RQD confidence.

How does WINA compare to RERE and SPH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), WINA carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.5x, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of 84.5%. By comparison, RERE (ATRenew Inc. (every three of which representing two ) (Class A)) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 18.8x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $903.4M) and SPH (Suburban Propane Partners L.P.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 8.4%, cap $1.19B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SPH leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while WINA leads on capital efficiency (84.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WINA?

Per WINA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27, CIK 0000908315), Winmark Corporation generated $86.1M in revenue (+5.9% YoY), $41.7M in net income, and $44.7M in free cash flow against $24.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (96% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is WINA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

WINA last traded at $286.88 (+1.38% on volume of 71,512 shares), positioning the stock -5.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($304.04) and -24.21% below its 200-day simple moving average ($378.53). Across its 52-week range of $275.47 to $488.83, WINA sits at the 5.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.3% ($263.07 to $310.69).

WINA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Winmark Corporation (WINA)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), WINA converted $86.1M of revenue into a 96.4% gross margin, 63.4% operating margin, and $44.7M in free cash flow (51.9% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: WINA RQD Cockpit WINA 12M Forecast WINA Earnings & Move WINA Dividends & DRIP WINA Insiders & 13F WINA Whale Options WINA Profit Sankey WINA News & Why