Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$4.05 +1.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.05

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $244.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.05 (+0.03%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510037
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (3)Whales (13)SEC (5)Macro (13)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.4% Base Target
$10 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE VNDA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VNDA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VNDA SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (35% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (35% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 5% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 26.7 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$4.57-11.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
42
Grade D$4.03-0.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$4.01+1% Next Q
Current
37
Grade D-$4.05-8.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VNDA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VNDA currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.79) and Max Pain ($4.25) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.44.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VNDA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VNDA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (6.6% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $18,948

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $341/yr
$10.7K
Yr 1
$11.4K
Yr 2
$12.1K
Yr 3
$12.9K
Yr 4
$13.8K
Yr 5
$14.7K
Yr 6
$15.6K
Yr 7
$16.7K
Yr 8
$17.8K
Yr 9
$18.9K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VNDA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of VNDA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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VNDA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.96%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $4.03H $4.11L $3.74C $4.05VOL 1.79M
RES: $4.69SUP: $2.76SMA50: $4.79SMA200: $6.21
$8.02$6.86$5.70$4.54$3.38RES $4.69SUP $2.76$4.052026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VNDA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VNDA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VNDA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VNDA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VNDA)

Health Care Rank #751 of 1016 ⚔️ CAMP vs VNDA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (VNDA vs. CAMP, LFCR, ELDN, EVMN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) ranks #751 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #551 by equity capitalization ($244.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VNDA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while VNDA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. LFCR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 51/100 (D) compared with VNDA at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
VNDA ACTIVE
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% +1.25% $244.9M Benchmark Subject
CAMP
CAMP4 Therapeutics Corporation
E 34/100 — — -35.0% +6.85% $244.7M /camp-vs-vnda →
LFCR
Lifecore Biomedical Inc.
D 51/100 — — — +0.15% $246.8M /lfcr-vs-vnda →
ELDN
Eledon Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 49/100 — — -35.0% +10.15% $247.0M /eldn-vs-vnda →
EVMN
Evommune Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -35.0% +7.92% $247.1M /evmn-vs-vnda →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001347178

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) reported GAAP revenue of $216.1M (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $198.8M , and +12.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$220.5M, operating cash flow of -$109.4M, and free cash flow of -$110.4M (-579.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, VNDA closed FY2025 with $488.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $216.1M -$220.5M -$109.4M -$110.4M $488.9M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $198.8M -$18.9M -$15.8M -$16.2M $656.2M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $192.6M $2.5M $12.8M $12.8M — —

3. VNDA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VNDA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VNDA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $4.05 (+1.25% 1D, market cap $244.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, VNDA ranks #751 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VNDA compare to CAMP and LFCR in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), VNDA carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, CAMP (CAMP4 Therapeutics Corporation) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $244.7M) and LFCR (Lifecore Biomedical Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $246.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VNDA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while VNDA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VNDA?

Per VNDA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001347178), Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $216.1M in revenue (+8.7% YoY), -$220.5M in net income, and -$110.4M in free cash flow against $488.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VNDA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VNDA last traded at $4.05 (+1.25% on volume of 2,704,250 shares), positioning the stock -15.45% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.79) and -34.78% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.21). Across its 52-week range of $3.74 to $9.94, VNDA sits at the 5.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 26.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.7% ($3.58 to $4.52).

VNDA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does VNDA pay a dividend and is it safe?

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 1.8% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

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