MARKET WIREReuters • 3h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why VIR Stock slipped -1.51% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$11.75 -1.51% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.70
Vir Biotechnology Inc. (VIR) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $2.01B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.70 (-0.46%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VIR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VIR SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (32% of score)
Altman Z-Score 2.40 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+6/20 pts (19% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 100% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$11.70-14.9% Next Q
23
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$9.96+6.1% Next Q
26
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$10.57+11.2% Next Q
28
CurrentGrade E$11.75-9.4% Hist 90D α
31
Trajectory: E (23) → E (31)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VIR Turnaround Squeeze
While VIR currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.94) and Max Pain ($12.34) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.80.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VIR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VIR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why VIR Stock slipped -1.51% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Vir Biotechnology Inc. (VIR) slipped -1.51% to $11.75, trading at 94% of its 52-week range ($4.82 – $12.19). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 94% of its 52-week range ($4.82 – $12.19) with RSI-14 at 53.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $11.75 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 100% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live VIR Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 5h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 5h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 7h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 9h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 10h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VIR)
- ✓Walkthrough of VIR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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VIR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.97%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $11.63H $11.84L $11.18C $11.75VOL 1.27M
RES: $13.20SUP: $9.27SMA50: $10.94SMA200: $9.52
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
VIR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -7.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VIR today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VIR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VIR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VIR)
Health Care Rank #907 of 1016
⚔️ MESO vs VIR Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (VIR vs. MESO, ALVO, COAG, BCRX)
Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vir Biotechnology Inc. (VIR) ranks #907 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #264 by equity capitalization ($2.01B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCRX leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while BCRX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. BCRX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with VIR at 31/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIR
ACTIVE
Vir Biotechnology Inc. | E | 31/100 | — | 96.0% | -35.0% | -1.51% | $2.01B | Benchmark Subject |
| MESO Mesoblast Limited | C- | 60/100 | — | — | — | +17.03% | $2.04B | /meso-vs-vir → |
| ALVO Alvotech | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | — | -1.01% | $1.91B | /alvo-vs-vir → |
| COAG Hemab Therapeutics Holdings Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | — | — | — | +4.99% | $1.89B | /coag-vs-vir → |
| BCRX BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. | B+ | 78/100 | 8.3x | — | 85.0% | +1.79% | $2.18B | /bcrx-vs-vir → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001706431In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Vir Biotechnology Inc. (VIR) reported GAAP revenue of $68.6M (-7.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $74.2M , and -20.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$438.0M, operating cash flow of -$391.8M, and free cash flow of -$396.6M (+12.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, VIR closed FY2025 with $1.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.40, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $68.6M | -$438.0M | -$391.8M | -$396.6M | $1.00B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $74.2M | -$522.0M | -$446.4M | -$453.7M | $1.40B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $86.2M | -$615.1M | -$778.8M | -$778.8M | — | — |
3. VIR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs VIR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Vir Biotechnology Inc. (NASDAQ: VIR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $11.75 (-1.51% 1D, market cap $2.01B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, VIR ranks #907 in composite RQD confidence.
How does VIR compare to MESO and ALVO in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), VIR carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MESO (Mesoblast Limited) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.04B) and ALVO (Alvotech) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.91B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCRX leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while BCRX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VIR?
Per VIR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001706431), Vir Biotechnology Inc. generated $68.6M in revenue (-7.6% YoY), -$438.0M in net income, and -$396.6M in free cash flow against $1.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is VIR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
VIR last traded at $11.75 (-1.51% on volume of 1,421,832 shares), positioning the stock +7.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($10.94) and +23.42% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.52). Across its 52-week range of $4.82 to $12.19, VIR sits at the 94.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($10.28 to $13.22).
VIR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is VIR stock moving today?
Why VIR Stock slipped -1.51% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.