Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / VAI / financials

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Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$2.16 +2.86% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.17

Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 32/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $31.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.17 (+0.32%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VAI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (32/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VAI SCORES 32/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 13.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$2.74-15% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.33-7.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.16+0% Next Q

Current

Grade E$2.16-9.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → E (32)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VAI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VAI currently carries a cautious 32/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.17) and Max Pain ($2.27) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.06.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VAI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VAI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 32%NO 68%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How VAI Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.3M

FY24

Rev $3.3M

FY25

Rev $1.5M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.5M	13.6%	-80%	-$5.3M	-$1.6M	-45%
FY 2024	$3.3M	17.1%	-59.5%	-$3.7M	$499.9K	-45%
FY 2023	$4.3M	13.6%	-80%	-$3.7M	$7.2K	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VAI)

✓Walkthrough of VAI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

VAI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +78.51%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $2.15H $2.30L $2.11C $2.16VOL 14.2K

RES: $3.14SUP: $1.65SMA50: $2.17SMA200: $1.53

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VAI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VAI Butterfly Map → + Track VAI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -53.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VAI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VAI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VAI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VAI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #943 of 1011 ⚔️ MRT vs VAI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (VAI vs. MRT, HTZ, CAR, R)

Industry: Rental/Leasing Companies (6 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) ranks #943 by composite RQD confidence (32/100, grade E) and #852 by equity capitalization ($31.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, R leads on earnings valuation at 21.5x trailing P/E, while R leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.7% ROIC and — gross margin. R currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with VAI at 32/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VAI ACTIVE Valor Energy Incorporated	E	32/100	—	13.6%	-35.0%	+2.86%	$31.4M	Benchmark Subject
MRT Marti Technologies Inc. (Class A)	D-	35/100	—	61.1%	-35.0%	+1.46%	$179.8M	/mrt-vs-vai →
HTZ Hertz Global Holdings Inc	D+	56/100	—	—	—	+2.11%	$691.5M	/htz-vs-vai →
CAR Avis Budget Group Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	—	+6.31%	$3.82B	/car-vs-vai →
R Ryder System Inc.	C	62/100	21.5x	—	5.7%	+1.84%	$10.73B	/r-vs-vai →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0001711012

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.5M (-53.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.3M , and -63.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$5.3M, operating cash flow of -$1.6M, and free cash flow of -$1.6M (-420.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, VAI closed FY2025 with $5.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-31	$1.5M	-$5.3M	-$1.6M	-$1.6M	$5.7M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-31	$3.3M	-$3.7M	$500.3K	$499.9K	$7.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-31	$4.3M	-$3.7M	$7.2K	$7.2K	—	—

3. VAI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VAI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Valor Energy Incorporated (NASDAQ: VAI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $2.16 (+2.86% 1D, market cap $31.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, VAI ranks #943 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VAI compare to MRT and HTZ in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Rental/Leasing Companies), VAI carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 13.6%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MRT (Marti Technologies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $179.8M) and HTZ (Hertz Global Holdings Inc) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $691.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, R leads on earnings multiple (21.5x) while R leads on capital efficiency (5.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VAI?

Per VAI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001711012), Valor Energy Incorporated generated $1.5M in revenue (-53.7% YoY), -$5.3M in net income, and -$1.6M in free cash flow against $5.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VAI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VAI last traded at $2.16 (+2.86% on volume of 19,765 shares), positioning the stock -0.46% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.17) and +41.18% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.53). Across its 52-week range of $0.83 to $2.91, VAI sits at the 63.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.89 to $2.43).

VAI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), VAI converted $1.5M of revenue into a 13.6% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: VAI RQD Cockpit VAI 12M Forecast VAI Earnings & Move VAI Dividends & DRIP VAI Insiders & 13F VAI Whale Options VAI Profit Sankey VAI News & Why