Stock Ratings / Technology / UPWK / earnings

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Upwork Inc. (UPWK) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.6% Move

$9.12 +1.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.16

Upwork Inc. (UPWK) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (78% profit margin, 30% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $1.14B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.16 (+0.48%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 30.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UPWK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY UPWK SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 30.8% FCF Margin ($242.5M FCF) & 77.8% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$8.60-2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$8.43+12.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$9.48-3.8% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$9.12+6.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UPWK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, UPWK faces multiple-compression risk if 9.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 75.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($8.64) or 200D SMA ($10.61) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.65) toward Bear Floor ($7.48).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UPWK• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “UPWK Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.6% Swing Band

±$0.69 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

UPWK Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 71/100

Trailing EPS: $0.92 • YoY Revenue Growth: 2.4%

Model Bullish Setup (71/100)Model Risk Weight (29/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$787.8M	$115.4M	$242.5M	77.8%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$769.3M	$215.6M	$150.0M	77.4%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$689.1M	$46.9M	$52.7M	77.8%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating UPWK & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on UPWK
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

UPWK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.88%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $8.99H $9.24L $8.99C $9.12VOL 2.02M

RES: $9.58SUP: $7.74SMA50: $8.64SMA200: $10.61

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UPWK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UPWK Butterfly Map → + Track UPWK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-1.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UPWK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UPWK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UPWK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UPWK)

Technology Rank #95 of 714 ⚔️ LZ vs UPWK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (UPWK vs. LZ, PSQL, CLVT, GDRX)

Industry: EDP Services (163 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Upwork Inc. (UPWK) ranks #95 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #344 by equity capitalization ($1.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UPWK leads on earnings valuation at 9.9x trailing P/E, while LZ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 34.7% ROIC and 65.9% gross margin. UPWK currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UPWK ACTIVE Upwork Inc.	B-	71/100	9.9x	77.8%	30.4%	+1.33%	$1.14B	Benchmark Subject
LZ LegalZoom.com Inc.	C	65/100	73.7x	65.9%	34.7%	+0.45%	$1.14B	/lz-vs-upwk →
PSQL Pasqal Holding SA Ordinary Share	D	47/100	—	—	—	-5.07%	$1.11B	/psql-vs-upwk →
CLVT Clarivate Plc	E	33/100	—	66.0%	1.3%	-2.27%	$1.10B	/clvt-vs-upwk →
GDRX GoodRx Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D+	52/100	39.7x	—	8.3%	+2.02%	$1.21B	/gdrx-vs-upwk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001627475

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Upwork Inc. (UPWK) reported GAAP revenue of $787.8M (+2.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $769.3M , and +14.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $115.4M, operating cash flow of $248.3M, and free cash flow of $242.5M (+61.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, UPWK closed FY2025 with $1.30B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.27, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$787.8M	$115.4M	$248.3M	$242.5M	$1.30B	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$769.3M	$215.6M	$153.6M	$150.0M	$1.21B	$357.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$689.1M	$46.9M	$52.7M	$52.7M	—	—

3. UPWK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UPWK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Upwork Inc. (NASDAQ: UPWK) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $9.12 (+1.33% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, UPWK ranks #95 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UPWK compare to LZ and PSQL in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), UPWK carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.9x, gross margin of 77.8%, and ROIC of 30.4%. By comparison, LZ (LegalZoom.com Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 73.7x, ROIC 34.7%, cap $1.14B) and PSQL (Pasqal Holding SA Ordinary Share) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.11B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UPWK leads on earnings multiple (9.9x) while LZ leads on capital efficiency (34.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPWK?

Per UPWK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001627475), Upwork Inc. generated $787.8M in revenue (+2.4% YoY), $115.4M in net income, and $242.5M in free cash flow against $1.30B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (78% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UPWK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UPWK last traded at $9.12 (+1.33% on volume of 3,520,143 shares), positioning the stock +5.56% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.64) and -14.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.61). Across its 52-week range of $7.44 to $22.84, UPWK sits at the 10.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($8.43 to $9.81).

UPWK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is UPWK's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Upwork Inc. (UPWK)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is UPWK stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.6% event move for UPWK, spanning a range between $8.43 and $9.81.

Direct Sub-Reports: UPWK RQD Cockpit UPWK 12M Forecast UPWK Earnings & Move UPWK Dividends & DRIP UPWK Insiders & 13F UPWK Whale Options UPWK Profit Sankey UPWK News & Why