Stock Ratings / Health Care / TRUP / forecast

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Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$30.19 +2.27% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $30.26

Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.32B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TRUP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TRUP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Trupanion Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $30.19 (+2.27% 1D, market cap $1.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TRUP ranks #151 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TRUP compare to FRNM and CSTL in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), TRUP carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 68.2x, gross margin of 16.1%, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, FRNM (Freenome Inc.) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.4%, cap $1.38B) and CSTL (Castle Biosciences Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.3%, cap $1.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRUP leads on earnings multiple (68.2x) while ALHC leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRUP?

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Per TRUP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001371285), Trupanion Inc. generated $1.44B in revenue (+11.9% YoY), $19.4M in net income, and $75.4M in free cash flow against $915.0M in total assets and $101.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 68x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $30.26 (+0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 5.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TRUP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TRUP SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.17 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 35% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 67.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 1% operating margin leave 10 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$26.29+4.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$27.50+8.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$29.77+1.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C$30.19+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TRUP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, TRUP faces multiple-compression risk if 68.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 68x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($26.87) or 200D SMA ($26.58) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($30.87) toward Bear Floor ($24.08).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TRUP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TRUP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TRUP Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $30.19: 331.2 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $24.08

$7,976

$-2,024 (-20.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $30.87

$10,225

+$225 (+2.3%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $49.33

$16,340

+$6,340 (+63.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$32	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$46	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$27	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TRUP Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TRUP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.53%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-11-02O $29.52H $30.19L $29.52C $30.19VOL 373.2K

SUP: $22.32SMA50: $26.87SMA200: $26.58

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TRUP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TRUP Butterfly Map → + Track TRUP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

45.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TRUP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TRUP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TRUP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TRUP)

Health Care Rank #151 of 1016 ⚔️ FRNM vs TRUP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TRUP vs. FRNM, CSTL, LMRI, ALHC)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) ranks #151 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #324 by equity capitalization ($1.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TRUP leads on earnings valuation at 68.2x trailing P/E, while ALHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.9% ROIC and — gross margin. TRUP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TRUP ACTIVE Trupanion Inc.	C	63/100	68.2x	16.1%	3.1%	+2.27%	$1.32B	Benchmark Subject
FRNM Freenome Inc.	D-	36/100	—	—	-3.4%	-4.32%	$1.38B	/frnm-vs-trup →
CSTL Castle Biosciences Inc.	C	63/100	—	79.4%	-9.3%	+4.99%	$1.18B	/cstl-vs-trup →
LMRI Lumexa Imaging Holdings Inc.	D+	54/100	—	—	—	+0.95%	$1.13B	/lmri-vs-trup →
ALHC Alignment Healthcare Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	13.9%	-1.47%	$1.67B	/alhc-vs-trup →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001371285

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) reported GAAP revenue of $1.44B (+11.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.29B , and +29.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $19.4M, operating cash flow of $89.5M, and free cash flow of $75.4M (+95.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TRUP closed FY2025 with $915.0M in total assets against $101.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.17, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.44B	$19.4M	$89.5M	$75.4M	$915.0M	$101.8M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.29B	-$9.6M	$48.3M	$38.6M	$806.9M	$127.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.11B	-$44.7M	$18.6M	$18.6M	—	—

3. TRUP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TRUP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TRUP compare to FRNM and CSTL in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRUP?

Where is TRUP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TRUP last traded at $30.19 (+2.27% on volume of 373,245 shares), positioning the stock +12.36% above its 50-day simple moving average ($26.87) and +13.58% above its 200-day simple moving average ($26.58). Across its 52-week range of $21.16 to $46.98, TRUP sits at the 35.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($27.87 to $32.51).

TRUP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TRUP's 12-month stock price target?

Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $30.87 (+2.3% from $30.19), with a bull-case target of $49.33 and a bear-case floor of $24.08.