Stock Ratings / Financials / TONX / insiders

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TON Strategy Company (TONX) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$3.06 -7.27% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.01

TON Strategy Company (TONX) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $181.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TONX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TONX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, TON Strategy Company (NASDAQ: TONX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $3.06 (-7.27% 1D, market cap $181.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TONX ranks #985 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TONX compare to FOA and FUFU in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), TONX carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -7.8%. By comparison, FOA (Finance of America Companies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 4.0x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $181.5M) and FUFU (BitFuFu Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.4%, cap $184.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FOA leads on earnings multiple (4.0x) while FOA leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TONX?

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Per TONX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001566610), TON Strategy Company generated $12.8M in revenue (+1327.8% YoY), -$148.5M in net income, and -$20.9M in free cash flow against $411.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.01 (-1.50%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TONX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TONX SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 49% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$3.22-16.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$2.68+10.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.95+3.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$3.06-8.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TONX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TONX currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.27) and Max Pain ($3.21) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.66.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TONX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TONX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

TONX Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (TONX)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on TONX. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TONX)

✓Walkthrough of TONX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TONX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +50.74%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $3.24H $3.24L $2.86C $3.06VOL 569.3K

RES: $4.51SUP: $2.56SMA50: $3.27SMA200: $2.94

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TONX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TONX Butterfly Map → + Track TONX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TONX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TONX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TONX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TONX)

Financials Rank #985 of 1096 ⚔️ FOA vs TONX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TONX vs. FOA, FUFU, ZSQR, EXOD)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TON Strategy Company (TONX) ranks #985 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #901 by equity capitalization ($181.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FOA leads on earnings valuation at 4.0x trailing P/E, while FOA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. FOA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 54/100 (D+) compared with TONX at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TONX ACTIVE TON Strategy Company	D-	35/100	—	—	-7.8%	-7.27%	$181.7M	Benchmark Subject
FOA Finance of America Companies Inc. (Class A)	D+	54/100	4.0x	—	11.4%	+0.10%	$181.5M	/foa-vs-tonx →
FUFU BitFuFu Inc. (Class A)	E	24/100	—	—	-15.4%	-2.26%	$184.2M	/fufu-vs-tonx →
ZSQR Z Squared Inc.	E	24/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.55%	$191.3M	/zsqr-vs-tonx →
EXOD Exodus Movement Inc. (Class A)	E	28/100	—	—	-4.6%	-8.69%	$170.3M	/exod-vs-tonx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001566610

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TON Strategy Company (TONX) reported GAAP revenue of $12.8M (+1327.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $895.0K , and +20184.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$148.5M, operating cash flow of -$20.8M, and free cash flow of -$20.9M (-129.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TONX closed FY2025 with $411.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$12.8M	-$148.5M	-$20.8M	-$20.9M	$411.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$895.0K	-$10.3M	-$8.8M	-$9.1M	$20.6M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$63.0K	-$22.0M	—	—	—	—

3. TONX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TONX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TONX compare to FOA and FUFU in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TONX?

Where is TONX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TONX last traded at $3.06 (-7.27% on volume of 569,312 shares), positioning the stock -6.42% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.27) and +4.08% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.94). Across its 52-week range of $1.75 to $4.44, TONX sits at the 48.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.68 to $3.44).

TONX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are TONX insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies TONX leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

Direct Sub-Reports: TONX RQD Cockpit TONX 12M Forecast TONX Earnings & Move TONX Dividends & DRIP TONX Insiders & 13F TONX Whale Options TONX Profit Sankey TONX News & Why