Stock Ratings / Financials / TFIN / earnings

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Triumph Financial Inc. (TFIN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.2% Move

$63.47 +0.84% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $63.45

Triumph Financial Inc. (TFIN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.52B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $63.44 (-0.04%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 1.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TFIN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TFIN SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 41% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$62.53-1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$61.52+3.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$63.45+0% Next Q

Current

Grade D$63.47-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TFIN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TFIN currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($64.73) and Max Pain ($66.64) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $87.70.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TFIN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TFIN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.2% Swing Band

±$3.94 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TFIN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 48/100

Trailing EPS: $1.06 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (48/100)Model Risk Weight (52/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$25.4M	$67.1M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$16.1M	$58.5M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$41.1M	$60.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TFIN)

✓Walkthrough of TFIN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TFIN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.22%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $63.22H $63.48L $61.98C $63.47VOL 150.2K

RES: $60.98SUP: $58.69SMA50: $64.73SMA200: $67.25

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TFIN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TFIN Butterfly Map → + Track TFIN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

41.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TFIN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TFIN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TFIN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TFIN)

Financials Rank #889 of 1096 ⚔️ LKFN vs TFIN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TFIN vs. LKFN, AMAL, TMP, CASH)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Triumph Financial Inc. (TFIN) ranks #889 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #484 by equity capitalization ($1.52B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CASH leads on earnings valuation at 8.6x trailing P/E, while CASH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.8% ROIC and — gross margin. AMAL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with TFIN at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TFIN ACTIVE Triumph Financial Inc.	D	48/100	59.9x	—	2.7%	+0.84%	$1.52B	Benchmark Subject
LKFN Lakeland Financial Corporation	C	64/100	14.6x	—	13.6%	+1.03%	$1.51B	/lkfn-vs-tfin →
AMAL Amalgamated Financial Corp.	B-	71/100	14.7x	—	13.1%	+0.37%	$1.53B	/amal-vs-tfin →
TMP Tompkins Financial Corporation	C-	61/100	9.1x	—	17.2%	+0.53%	$1.46B	/tmp-vs-tfin →
CASH Pathward Financial Inc.	C+	69/100	8.6x	—	21.8%	+0.88%	$1.59B	/cash-vs-tfin →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001539638

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Triumph Financial Inc. (TFIN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $25.4M, operating cash flow of $67.1M, and free cash flow of $67.1M (+14.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TFIN closed FY2025 with $6.38B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$25.4M	$67.1M	$67.1M	$6.38B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$16.1M	$58.5M	$58.5M	$5.95B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$41.1M	$60.0M	$60.0M	—	—

3. TFIN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TFIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Triumph Financial Inc. (NYSE: TFIN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $63.47 (+0.84% 1D, market cap $1.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TFIN ranks #889 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TFIN compare to LKFN and AMAL in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), TFIN carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 59.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.7%. By comparison, LKFN (Lakeland Financial Corporation) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 14.6x, ROIC 13.6%, cap $1.51B) and AMAL (Amalgamated Financial Corp.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 14.7x, ROIC 13.1%, cap $1.53B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CASH leads on earnings multiple (8.6x) while CASH leads on capital efficiency (21.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TFIN?

Per TFIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001539638), Triumph Financial Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $25.4M in net income, and $67.1M in free cash flow against $6.38B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TFIN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TFIN last traded at $63.47 (+0.84% on volume of 230,577 shares), positioning the stock -1.95% below its 50-day simple moving average ($64.73) and -5.62% below its 200-day simple moving average ($67.25). Across its 52-week range of $49.27 to $83.52, TFIN sits at the 41.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($59.53 to $67.41).

TFIN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is TFIN's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Triumph Financial Inc. (TFIN)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is TFIN stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.2% event move for TFIN, spanning a range between $59.53 and $67.41.

Direct Sub-Reports: TFIN RQD Cockpit TFIN 12M Forecast TFIN Earnings & Move TFIN Dividends & DRIP TFIN Insiders & 13F TFIN Whale Options TFIN Profit Sankey TFIN News & Why