MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why STHO Stock slipped -0.53% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$7.45 -0.53% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.43
Star Holdings (STHO) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $90.0M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.43 (-0.29%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for STHO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY STHO SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (26% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 15% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 25.2 (OVERSOLD (<32))
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$8.31-7.3% Next Q
47
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$7.70-2.5% Next Q
44
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$7.51-0.8% Next Q
42
CurrentGrade D-$7.45-7.6% Hist 90D α
39
Trajectory: D (47) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a STHO Turnaround Squeeze
While STHO currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Real Estate with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.72) and Max Pain ($7.82) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.44.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $STHO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “STHO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why STHO Stock slipped -0.53% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Star Holdings (STHO) slipped -0.53% to $7.45, trading at 15% of its 52-week range ($7.01 – $9.94). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-26% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 15% of its 52-week range ($7.01 – $9.94) with RSI-14 at 25.2 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.2% around $7.45 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live STHO Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 5h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring STHO)
- ✓Walkthrough of STHO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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STHO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.07%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $7.49H $7.58L $7.41C $7.45VOL 32.6K
RES: $10.33SUP: $7.26SMA50: $8.72SMA200: $8.67
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
STHO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -2.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on STHO today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for STHO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for STHO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (STHO)
Real Estate Rank #42 of 51
⚔️ GOOD vs STHO Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Real Estate Peer Comparison (STHO vs. GOOD, SRG, LPA, BEEP)
Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)Across 51 tracked Real Estate securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Star Holdings (STHO) ranks #42 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #26 by equity capitalization ($90.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GOOD leads on earnings valuation at 28.7x trailing P/E, while GOOD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.2% ROIC and — gross margin. GOOD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with STHO at 39/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STHO
ACTIVE
Star Holdings | D- | 39/100 | — | — | -25.5% | -0.53% | $90.0M | Benchmark Subject |
| GOOD Gladstone Commercial Corporation Real Estate Investment Trust | C- | 61/100 | 28.7x | — | 11.2% | -0.52% | $552.8M | /good-vs-stho → |
| SRG Seritage Growth Properties (Class A) | D- | 40/100 | — | — | -20.6% | +1.85% | $92.9M | /srg-vs-stho → |
| LPA Logistic Properties of the Americas | D | 51/100 | — | — | — | -0.38% | $82.7M | /lpa-vs-stho → |
| BEEP Mobile Infrastructure Corporation | D | 44/100 | — | — | -15.2% | -0.39% | $104.5M | /beep-vs-stho → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001953366In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Star Holdings (STHO) reported GAAP revenue of $110.1M (-2.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $113.3M , and -10.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$64.2M, operating cash flow of -$11.7M, and free cash flow of -$11.7M (+62.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, STHO closed FY2025 with $570.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $110.1M | -$64.2M | -$11.7M | -$11.7M | $570.2M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $113.3M | -$86.8M | -$31.3M | -$31.3M | $608.7M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $123.1M | -$196.4M | -$18.7M | -$18.7M | — | — |
3. STHO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs STHO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Star Holdings (NASDAQ: STHO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $7.45 (-0.53% 1D, market cap $90.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, STHO ranks #42 in composite RQD confidence.
How does STHO compare to GOOD and SRG in the Real Estate sector?
Within the Real Estate sector (Real Estate), STHO carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -25.5%. By comparison, GOOD (Gladstone Commercial Corporation Real Estate Investment Trust) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 28.7x, ROIC 11.2%, cap $552.8M) and SRG (Seritage Growth Properties (Class A)) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.6%, cap $92.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GOOD leads on earnings multiple (28.7x) while GOOD leads on capital efficiency (11.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STHO?
Per STHO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001953366), Star Holdings generated $110.1M in revenue (-2.8% YoY), -$64.2M in net income, and -$11.7M in free cash flow against $570.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Real Estate with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is STHO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
STHO last traded at $7.45 (-0.53% on volume of 299,172 shares), positioning the stock -14.56% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.72) and -14.07% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.67). Across its 52-week range of $7.01 to $9.94, STHO sits at the 15.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 25.2 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($6.99 to $7.91).
STHO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is STHO stock moving today?
Why STHO Stock slipped -0.53% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-26% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.