Stock Ratings / Technology / SMSI / options

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Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$2.35 +2.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.36

Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $13.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.36 (+0.24%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMSI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SMSI SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$2.61-9.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$2.37-1.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.33+0.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$2.35-8.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SMSI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SMSI currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.66) and Max Pain ($2.47) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.88.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMSI• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SMSI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±11.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (SMSI)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for SMSI.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SMSI)

✓Walkthrough of SMSI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SMSI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -47.78%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $2.37H $2.46L $2.27C $2.35VOL 25.0K

RES: $2.03SUP: $2.16SMA50: $2.66SMA200: $3.10

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMSI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SMSI Butterfly Map → + Track SMSI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -15.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMSI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMSI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMSI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMSI)

Technology Rank #606 of 714 ⚔️ YAAS vs SMSI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SMSI vs. YAAS, SAGT, UPLD, VIDA)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) ranks #606 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #631 by equity capitalization ($13.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SMSI leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while UPLD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.4% ROIC and 74.8% gross margin. VIDA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with SMSI at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SMSI ACTIVE Smith Micro Software Inc.	D-	36/100	—	74.1%	-35.0%	+2.40%	$13.1M	Benchmark Subject
YAAS Youxin Technology Ltd (Class A)	D-	43/100	—	33.4%	—	-6.04%	$12.7M	/yaas-vs-smsi →
SAGT SAGTEC GLOBAL LIMITED (Class A)	D+	55/100	—	—	—	-5.66%	$14.1M	/sagt-vs-smsi →
UPLD Upland Software Inc.	D-	41/100	—	74.8%	2.4%	-0.26%	$11.5M	/upld-vs-smsi →
VIDA VIDA Global Inc. (Class A)	D+	56/100	—	—	—	-2.74%	$15.6M	/vida-vs-smsi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000948708

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) reported GAAP revenue of $17.4M (-15.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $20.6M , and -57.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$30.1K, operating cash flow of -$7.2M, and free cash flow of -$7.3M (+49.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMSI closed FY2025 with $25.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$17.4M	-$30.1K	-$7.2M	-$7.3M	$25.0M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$20.6M	-$48.7K	-$14.3M	-$14.3M	$48.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$40.9M	-$24.4K	-$7.0M	-$7.0M	—	—

3. SMSI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMSI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Smith Micro Software Inc. (NASDAQ: SMSI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $2.35 (+2.40% 1D, market cap $13.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, SMSI ranks #606 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SMSI compare to YAAS and SAGT in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), SMSI carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.1%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, YAAS (Youxin Technology Ltd (Class A)) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $12.7M) and SAGT (SAGTEC GLOBAL LIMITED (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $14.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SMSI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while UPLD leads on capital efficiency (2.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMSI?

Per SMSI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000948708), Smith Micro Software Inc. generated $17.4M in revenue (-15.5% YoY), -$30.1K in net income, and -$7.3M in free cash flow against $25.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SMSI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMSI last traded at $2.35 (+2.40% on volume of 9,617 shares), positioning the stock -11.65% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.66) and -24.19% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.10). Across its 52-week range of $2.05 to $4.65, SMSI sits at the 11.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.5% ($2.08 to $2.62).