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Why SI Stock surged +4.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$20.44 +4.93% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.58
Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID
Cap $425.5M
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Is SI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Shoulder Innovations Inc. (NYSE: SI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $20.44 (+4.93% 1D, market cap $425.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SI ranks #572 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does SI compare to CARL and OFIX in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), SI carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 76.5%, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, CARL (Carlsmed Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $430.6M) and OFIX (Orthofix Medical Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.2%, cap $417.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OFIX leads on capital efficiency (-12.2% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SI?
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Per SI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001699350), Shoulder Innovations Inc. generated $47.3M in revenue (+49.6% YoY), -$40.4M in net income, and -$36.0M in free cash flow against $169.9M in total assets and $14.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.58 (+0.70%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SI SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (26% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.3% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (26% of score)
Altman Z-Score 8.73 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$18.13-0.2% Next Q
34
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$18.09+8.7% Next Q
37
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$19.66+4% Next Q
39
CurrentGrade D-$20.44-7% Hist 90D α
42
Trajectory: E (34) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SI Turnaround Squeeze
While SI currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($19.18) and Max Pain ($21.46) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.83.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why SI Stock surged +4.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) surged +4.93% to $20.44, trading at 70% of its 52-week range ($10.92 – $24.6). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-16% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 70% of its 52-week range ($10.92 – $24.6) with RSI-14 at 50.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11.3% around $20.44 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 76.5% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live SI Headlines & Catalysts
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SI)
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SI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +59.81%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $20.50H $20.74L $19.05C $20.44VOL 119.0K
RES: $19.99SUP: $15.11SMA50: $19.18SMA200: $17.01
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
SI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +49.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SI today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SI)
Health Care Rank #572 of 1016
⚔️ CARL vs SI Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SI vs. CARL, OFIX, NPCE, SSII)
Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) ranks #572 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #471 by equity capitalization ($425.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SI leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while OFIX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.2% ROIC and 68.8% gross margin. OFIX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 55/100 (D+) compared with SI at 42/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI
ACTIVE
Shoulder Innovations Inc. | D- | 42/100 | — | 76.5% | -16.1% | +4.93% | $425.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| CARL Carlsmed Inc. | D- | 39/100 | — | 75.3% | -35.0% | +3.01% | $430.6M | /carl-vs-si → |
| OFIX Orthofix Medical Inc. | D+ | 55/100 | — | 68.8% | -12.2% | +1.99% | $417.1M | /ofix-vs-si → |
| NPCE Neuropace Inc. | E | 30/100 | — | 77.2% | -23.0% | +0.62% | $446.6M | /npce-vs-si → |
| SSII SS Innovations International Inc. | D- | 39/100 | — | 46.0% | -18.5% | -2.46% | $477.2M | /ssii-vs-si → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001699350In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) reported GAAP revenue of $47.3M (+49.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $31.6M ) , GAAP net income of -$40.4M, operating cash flow of -$28.6M, and free cash flow of -$36.0M (-98.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, SI closed FY2025 with $169.9M in total assets against $14.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.73, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $47.3M | -$40.4M | -$28.6M | -$36.0M | $169.9M | $14.9M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $31.6M | -$15.6M | -$14.1M | -$18.2M | $43.1M | $14.7M |
3. SI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Shoulder Innovations Inc. (NYSE: SI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $20.44 (+4.93% 1D, market cap $425.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SI ranks #572 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SI compare to CARL and OFIX in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), SI carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 76.5%, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, CARL (Carlsmed Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $430.6M) and OFIX (Orthofix Medical Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.2%, cap $417.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OFIX leads on capital efficiency (-12.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SI?
Per SI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001699350), Shoulder Innovations Inc. generated $47.3M in revenue (+49.6% YoY), -$40.4M in net income, and -$36.0M in free cash flow against $169.9M in total assets and $14.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SI last traded at $20.44 (+4.93% on volume of 144,839 shares), positioning the stock +6.57% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.18) and +20.16% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.01). Across its 52-week range of $10.92 to $24.60, SI sits at the 69.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.3% ($18.13 to $22.75).
SI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is SI stock moving today?
Why SI Stock surged +4.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-16% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.