CATALYSTReuters • 2h ago
Indian shares rise on Iran war talks, Reliance earnings beat - ReutersIndian shares rise on Iran war talks, Reliance earnings beat Reuters
Why SERA Stock advanced +1.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$2.06 +1.48% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.06
Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $81.3M
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Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SERA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is SERA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: SERA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $2.06 (+1.48% 1D, market cap $81.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SERA ranks #646 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does SERA compare to KEQU and BNR in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), SERA carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, KEQU (Kewaunee Scientific Corporation) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 10.1x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $97.0M) and BNR (Burning Rock Biotech Limited) posts a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $116.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KEQU leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while KEQU leads on capital efficiency (16.7% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SERA?
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Per SERA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001534969), Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) generated $81.0K in revenue (+5.2% YoY), -$31.9M in net income, and -$26.3M in free cash flow against $101.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.06 (+0.08%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SERA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SERA SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (33% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 22% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 49.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (30% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.4% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$2.04+1% Next Q
32
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$2.06-1.5% Next Q
35
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$2.03+1.5% Next Q
37
CurrentGrade D-$2.06-7.4% Hist 90D α
40
Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SERA Turnaround Squeeze
While SERA currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.05) and Max Pain ($2.16) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.04.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SERA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SERA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why SERA Stock advanced +1.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) advanced +1.48% to $2.06, trading at 22% of its 52-week range ($1.56 – $3.85). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 22% of its 52-week range ($1.56 – $3.85) with RSI-14 at 49.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.4% around $2.06 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 0% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live SERA Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Oil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war - ReutersOil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Nine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say - ReutersNine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
MARKET WIRECNBC • 10h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 11h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 12h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SERA)
- ✓Walkthrough of SERA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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SERA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.19%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $2.09H $2.10L $2.03C $2.06VOL 86.0K
RES: $2.21SUP: $2.04SMA50: $2.05SMA200: $2.13
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
SERA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +5.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SERA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SERA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SERA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SERA)
Health Care Rank #646 of 1016
⚔️ KEQU vs SERA Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SERA vs. KEQU, BNR, XGN, TLSI)
Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) ranks #646 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #685 by equity capitalization ($81.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KEQU leads on earnings valuation at 10.1x trailing P/E, while KEQU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.7% ROIC and 28.5% gross margin. KEQU currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with SERA at 40/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SERA
ACTIVE
Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) | D- | 40/100 | — | -30.0% | -35.0% | +1.48% | $81.3M | Benchmark Subject |
| KEQU Kewaunee Scientific Corporation | B- | 70/100 | 10.1x | 28.5% | 16.7% | -3.48% | $97.0M | /kequ-vs-sera → |
| BNR Burning Rock Biotech Limited | E | 23/100 | — | 74.7% | -35.0% | -9.87% | $116.5M | /bnr-vs-sera → |
| XGN Exagen Inc. | E | 31/100 | — | 58.3% | -35.0% | +3.57% | $210.8M | /xgn-vs-sera → |
| TLSI TriSalus Life Sciences Inc. | E | 34/100 | — | 84.6% | -35.0% | -1.78% | $237.7M | /tlsi-vs-sera → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001534969In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) reported GAAP revenue of $81.0K (+5.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $77.0K , and -73.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$31.9M, operating cash flow of -$25.6M, and free cash flow of -$26.3M (-85.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, SERA closed FY2025 with $101.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $81.0K | -$31.9M | -$25.6M | -$26.3M | $101.9M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $77.0K | -$32.9M | -$14.2M | -$14.2M | $72.6M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $306.0K | -$36.2M | -$27.2M | -$27.2M | — | — |
3. SERA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SERA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: SERA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $2.06 (+1.48% 1D, market cap $81.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SERA ranks #646 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SERA compare to KEQU and BNR in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), SERA carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, KEQU (Kewaunee Scientific Corporation) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 10.1x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $97.0M) and BNR (Burning Rock Biotech Limited) posts a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $116.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KEQU leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while KEQU leads on capital efficiency (16.7% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SERA?
Per SERA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001534969), Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) generated $81.0K in revenue (+5.2% YoY), -$31.9M in net income, and -$26.3M in free cash flow against $101.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SERA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SERA last traded at $2.06 (+1.48% on volume of 18,748 shares), positioning the stock +0.49% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.05) and -3.29% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.13). Across its 52-week range of $1.56 to $3.85, SERA sits at the 21.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.4% ($1.93 to $2.19).
SERA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is SERA stock moving today?
Why SERA Stock advanced +1.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.