Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SBH / earnings

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Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.) (SBH) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.4% Move

$18.23 +4.71% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.43

Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.) (SBH) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 79/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (52% profit margin, 39% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 79/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.0% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $1.71B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.43 (+1.09%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 4.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 79/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SBH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (79/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SBH SCORES 79/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.7% FCF Margin ($172.7M FCF) & 51.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 6 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$15.90+4.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$16.65+4.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$17.40+4.8% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$18.23+8.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (71) → B+ (79)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SBH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 79/100 (B+) score, SBH faces multiple-compression risk if 8.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($16.53) or 200D SMA ($15.05) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($19.95) toward Bear Floor ($14.95).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SBH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SBH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 79%NO 21%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.4% Swing Band

±$1.35 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SBH Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 79/100

Trailing EPS: $2.09 • YoY Revenue Growth: -0.4%

Model Bullish Setup (79/100)Model Risk Weight (21/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-09-30	$3.70B	$195.9M	$172.7M	51.6%
FY 2024	2024-09-30	$3.72B	$153.4M	$145.4M	50.9%
FY 2023	2023-09-30	$3.73B	$184.6M	$249.3M	51.6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SBH & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SBH
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SBH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.56%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $18.44H $18.48L $17.98C $18.23VOL 1.51M

RES: $21.15SUP: $16.10SMA50: $16.53SMA200: $15.05

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SBH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SBH Butterfly Map → + Track SBH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-3.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SBH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SBH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SBH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SBH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #40 of 1011 ⚔️ EZPW vs SBH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SBH vs. EZPW, ARHS, SVV, REAL)

Industry: Other Specialty Stores (42 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.) (SBH) ranks #40 by composite RQD confidence (79/100, grade B+) and #439 by equity capitalization ($1.71B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SBH leads on earnings valuation at 8.7x trailing P/E, while ARHS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 42.6% ROIC and 38.9% gross margin. SBH currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 79/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SBH ACTIVE Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.)	B+	79/100	8.7x	51.6%	38.9%	+4.71%	$1.71B	Benchmark Subject
EZPW EZCORP Inc. Class A Non Voting	B	73/100	16.3x	58.5%	10.5%	-1.99%	$1.79B	/ezpw-vs-sbh →
ARHS Arhaus Inc. (Class A)	B+	78/100	26.8x	38.9%	42.6%	+10.33%	$1.80B	/arhs-vs-sbh →
SVV Savers Value Village Inc.	D+	55/100	64.5x	—	9.3%	+5.70%	$1.46B	/svv-vs-sbh →
REAL The RealReal Inc.	D	46/100	—	74.6%	-27.4%	+2.62%	$1.38B	/real-vs-sbh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001368458

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.) (SBH) reported GAAP revenue of $3.70B (-0.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.72B , and -0.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $195.9M, operating cash flow of $274.8M, and free cash flow of $172.7M (+18.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SBH closed FY2025 with $2.85B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.95, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$3.70B	$195.9M	$274.8M	$172.7M	$2.85B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$3.72B	$153.4M	$246.5M	$145.4M	$2.71B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$3.73B	$184.6M	$249.3M	$249.3M	—	—

3. SBH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SBH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.) (NYSE: SBH) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $18.23 (+4.71% 1D, market cap $1.71B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SBH ranks #40 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SBH compare to EZPW and ARHS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), SBH carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.7x, gross margin of 51.6%, and ROIC of 38.9%. By comparison, EZPW (EZCORP Inc. Class A Non Voting) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 16.3x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $1.79B) and ARHS (Arhaus Inc. (Class A)) posts a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 26.8x, ROIC 42.6%, cap $1.80B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SBH leads on earnings multiple (8.7x) while ARHS leads on capital efficiency (42.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SBH?

Per SBH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001368458), Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.) generated $3.70B in revenue (-0.4% YoY), $195.9M in net income, and $172.7M in free cash flow against $2.85B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (52% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SBH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SBH last traded at $18.23 (+4.71% on volume of 1,354,286 shares), positioning the stock +10.28% above its 50-day simple moving average ($16.53) and +21.13% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.05). Across its 52-week range of $11.54 to $18.48, SBH sits at the 96.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.4% ($16.88 to $19.58).

SBH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is SBH's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Name to be changed from Sally Holdings Inc.) (SBH)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 29, 2026.

How much is SBH stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.4% event move for SBH, spanning a range between $16.88 and $19.58.

Direct Sub-Reports: SBH RQD Cockpit SBH 12M Forecast SBH Earnings & Move SBH Dividends & DRIP SBH Insiders & 13F SBH Whale Options SBH Profit Sankey SBH News & Why