Stock Ratings / Health Care / PVLA / insiders

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Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$151.58 +2.79% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $152.05

Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.18B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $152.05 (+0.31%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PVLA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PVLA SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.2% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 89% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 59.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$138.77-13.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$120.30+4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$125.10+21.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D$151.58-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a PVLA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While PVLA currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($141.47) and Max Pain ($159.16) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $169.45.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PVLA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PVLA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

PVLA Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (PVLA)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on PVLA. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PVLA)

✓Walkthrough of PVLA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PVLA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.13%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $149.5H $151.6L $144.1C $151.6VOL 292.8K

RES: $160.6SUP: $114.9SMA50: $141.5SMA200: $126.9

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PVLA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PVLA Butterfly Map → + Track PVLA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PVLA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PVLA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PVLA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PVLA)

Health Care Rank #440 of 1016 ⚔️ XNCR vs PVLA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (PVLA vs. XNCR, MRVI, VERA, PRGO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) ranks #440 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #247 by equity capitalization ($2.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PVLA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while PRGO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -13.6% ROIC and 35.1% gross margin. PVLA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PVLA ACTIVE Palvella Therapeutics Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-27.9%	+2.79%	$2.18B	Benchmark Subject
XNCR Xencor Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-21.3%	-2.60%	$2.17B	/xncr-vs-pvla →
MRVI Maravai LifeSciences Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D-	36/100	—	18.3%	-35.0%	-0.47%	$2.20B	/mrvi-vs-pvla →
VERA Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.32%	$2.20B	/vera-vs-pvla →
PRGO Perrigo Company plc	D-	41/100	—	35.1%	-13.6%	-0.13%	$2.21B	/prgo-vs-pvla →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001583648

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$41.7M, operating cash flow of -$25.0M, and free cash flow of -$25.0M (-130.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, PVLA closed FY2025 with $59.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$41.7M	-$25.0M	-$25.0M	$59.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$17.4M	-$10.8M	-$10.8M	$88.2M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$42.8M	$18.7M	-$13.7M	-$13.7M	—	—

3. PVLA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PVLA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: PVLA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $151.58 (+2.79% 1D, market cap $2.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, PVLA ranks #440 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PVLA compare to XNCR and MRVI in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), PVLA carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -27.9%. By comparison, XNCR (Xencor Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -21.3%, cap $2.17B) and MRVI (Maravai LifeSciences Holdings Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.20B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PVLA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while PRGO leads on capital efficiency (-13.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PVLA?

Per PVLA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001583648), Palvella Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$41.7M in net income, and -$25.0M in free cash flow against $59.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PVLA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PVLA last traded at $151.58 (+2.79% on volume of 342,995 shares), positioning the stock +7.15% above its 50-day simple moving average ($141.47) and +19.42% above its 200-day simple moving average ($126.93). Across its 52-week range of $71.55 to $161.38, PVLA sits at the 89.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.2% ($133.09 to $170.07).

PVLA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are PVLA insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies PVLA leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

Direct Sub-Reports: PVLA RQD Cockpit PVLA 12M Forecast PVLA Earnings & Move PVLA Dividends & DRIP PVLA Insiders & 13F PVLA Whale Options PVLA Profit Sankey PVLA News & Why