MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 13h ago
AI Cracks Fuel REIT ComebackThe Fed held rates steady following September's hike, with two dissenters favoring another increase. Check out the market update here.
Why PMT Stock advanced +1.51% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$7.38 +1.51% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.39
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of (PMT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID
Cap $643.6M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.39 (+0.08%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PMT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PMT SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 10% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 47.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$7.36-6% Next Q
34
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$6.92+1.7% Next Q
37
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$7.04+4.8% Next Q
39
CurrentGrade D-$7.38-7% Hist 90D α
42
Trajectory: E (34) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a PMT Turnaround Squeeze
While PMT currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.25) and Max Pain ($7.75) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $14.50.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PMT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PMT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why PMT Stock advanced +1.51% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of (PMT) advanced +1.51% to $7.38, trading at 10% of its 52-week range ($6.7 – $13.81). Stretched risk/reward at 8x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 10% of its 52-week range ($6.7 – $13.81) with RSI-14 at 47.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.8% around $7.38 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live PMT Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 1d ago
Buy 13 IDEAL 'Safer' October LoPrice/HiDividend Small Cap 'Toy Dogs'See here for an analysis of 16 safe small-cap high-yield dividend dogs with strong cash flow and top picks projected to gain up to 62% by 2027.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 1d ago
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) Stock Fair Value Edges Lower As Analysts Turn CautiousThe latest model for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust now indicates a lower fair value, with the price target reduced from US$11.29 to US$10.38. Recent Street research, which has shifted price targets into a tighter US
RISK WATCHYahoo • 1d ago
What PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) Said on Its Q3 Earnings CallPennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE:PMT) reported a third-quarter net loss attributable to common shareholders of $36 million, or $0.41 per common share, as higher interest rates and wider mortgage spreads reduced a
RISK WATCHYahoo • 2d ago
PennyMac (PMT) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptPMT reports net loss but signals capital rotation into higher-yielding credit assets.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust Q3 2026 Earnings Call SummaryMoby summary of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust's Q3 2026 earnings call
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 2d ago
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation2026-10-30. The following slide deck was published by PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust in conjunction with their 2026 Q3 earnings call.
CATALYSTChartMill • 2d ago
PennyMac Mortgage Investment (NYSE:PMT) Q3 2026 Earnings: Adjusted EPS Beat, Buyback Boost, and Dividend ShiftPennyMac Mortgage’s mixed Q3 2026 results show an adjusted EPS beat, revenue miss, lower book value, expanded buyback, and a possible dividend cut.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
PennyMac Mortgage (PMT) Tops Q3 Earnings EstimatesPennyMac Mortgage (PMT) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +12.90% and -62.11%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
RISK WATCHYahoo • 2d ago
PennyMac Mortgage: Q3 Earnings Snapshot(AP) — WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. (AP) — PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) on Thursday reported a loss of $25 million in its third quarter.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PMT)
- ✓Walkthrough of PMT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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PMT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -39.41%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $7.49H $7.55L $7.35C $7.38VOL 5.17M
RES: $8.28SUP: $6.32SMA50: $8.25SMA200: $10.43
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
PMT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-6.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PMT today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PMT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PMT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PMT)
Financials Rank #965 of 1096
⚔️ ADAM vs PMT Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PMT vs. ADAM, PSTL, MFA, CLDT)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of (PMT) ranks #965 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #650 by equity capitalization ($643.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MFA leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while MFA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.7% ROIC and — gross margin. PSTL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with PMT at 42/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMT
ACTIVE
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of | D- | 42/100 | 7.5x | — | 4.6% | +1.51% | $643.6M | Benchmark Subject |
| ADAM Adamas Trust Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | 4.4x | — | 8.9% | -7.71% | $648.4M | /adam-vs-pmt → |
| PSTL Postal Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) | C | 65/100 | 46.4x | — | 9.6% | +1.93% | $656.4M | /pstl-vs-pmt → |
| MFA MFA Financial Inc. | C | 62/100 | 3.9x | — | 9.7% | +0.15% | $687.4M | /mfa-vs-pmt → |
| CLDT Chatham Lodging Trust of | C | 62/100 | 46.3x | — | 4.5% | +0.60% | $697.6M | /cldt-vs-pmt → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001464423In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of (PMT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $86.1M, operating cash flow of -$7.21B, and free cash flow of -$7.21B (-166.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, PMT closed FY2025 with $21.35B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $86.1M | -$7.21B | -$7.21B | $21.35B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $119.2M | -$2.70B | -$2.70B | $14.41B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $157.8M | $1.34B | $1.34B | — | — |
3. PMT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs PMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of (NYSE: PMT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $7.38 (+1.51% 1D, market cap $643.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PMT ranks #965 in composite RQD confidence.
How does PMT compare to ADAM and PSTL in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), PMT carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, ADAM (Adamas Trust Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 4.4x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $648.4M) and PSTL (Postal Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 46.4x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $656.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFA leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while MFA leads on capital efficiency (9.7% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PMT?
Per PMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001464423), PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of generated $0 in revenue, $86.1M in net income, and -$7.21B in free cash flow against $21.35B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is PMT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
PMT last traded at $7.38 (+1.51% on volume of 2,793,955 shares), positioning the stock -10.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.25) and -29.24% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.43). Across its 52-week range of $6.70 to $13.81, PMT sits at the 9.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($6.88 to $7.88).
PMT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is PMT stock moving today?
Why PMT Stock advanced +1.51% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 8x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.