Stock Ratings / Financials / PFSI / options

SLM (38) GPGI (37) GBDC (51) PURR (71) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

PennyMac Financial Services Inc. (PFSI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$64.41 +1.56% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.47

PennyMac Financial Services Inc. (PFSI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.35B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.47 (+0.09%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PFSI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PFSI SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 7% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$59.90+0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$60.32+5.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$63.68+1.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$64.41+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PFSI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, PFSI faces multiple-compression risk if 6.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($65.96) or 200D SMA ($84.46) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($64.41) toward Bear Floor ($50.24).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PFSI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PFSI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±7.6%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (PFSI)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for PFSI.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PFSI)

✓Walkthrough of PFSI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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PFSI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.66%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $60.93H $64.41L $60.24C $64.41VOL 1.29M

RES: $66.85SUP: $54.31SMA50: $65.96SMA200: $84.46

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PFSI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PFSI Butterfly Map → + Track PFSI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-8.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -25.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PFSI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PFSI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PFSI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PFSI)

Financials Rank #603 of 1096 ⚔️ SLM vs PFSI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PFSI vs. SLM, GPGI, GBDC, PURR)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, PennyMac Financial Services Inc. (PFSI) ranks #603 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #340 by equity capitalization ($3.35B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SLM leads on earnings valuation at 4.5x trailing P/E, while PURR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.0% ROIC and — gross margin. PURR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with PFSI at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PFSI ACTIVE PennyMac Financial Services Inc.	D+	58/100	6.7x	—	11.6%	+1.56%	$3.35B	Benchmark Subject
SLM SLM Corporation	D-	38/100	4.5x	—	7.4%	+2.99%	$3.34B	/slm-vs-pfsi →
GPGI GPGI Inc. (Class A)	D-	37/100	—	—	-6.5%	+4.13%	$3.36B	/gpgi-vs-pfsi →
GBDC Golub Capital BDC Inc.	D	51/100	8.8x	—	9.6%	+2.65%	$3.32B	/gbdc-vs-pfsi →
PURR Hyperliquid Strategies Inc	B-	71/100	32.8x	—	33.0%	+23.27%	$3.42B	/purr-vs-pfsi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001745916

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), PennyMac Financial Services Inc. (PFSI) reported GAAP revenue of $20.1M (-25.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $26.9M , and +50.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $501.0M, operating cash flow of -$1.65B, and free cash flow of -$1.66B (+63.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, PFSI closed FY2025 with $29.39B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$20.1M	$501.0M	-$1.65B	-$1.66B	$29.39B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$26.9M	$311.0M	-$4.53B	-$4.53B	$26.09B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$13.4M	$145.0M	-$1.58B	-$1.58B	—	—

3. PFSI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PFSI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, PennyMac Financial Services Inc. (NYSE: PFSI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $64.41 (+1.56% 1D, market cap $3.35B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PFSI ranks #603 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PFSI compare to SLM and GPGI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), PFSI carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, SLM (SLM Corporation) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 4.5x, ROIC 7.4%, cap $3.34B) and GPGI (GPGI Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.5%, cap $3.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLM leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while PURR leads on capital efficiency (33.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PFSI?

Per PFSI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001745916), PennyMac Financial Services Inc. generated $20.1M in revenue (-25.2% YoY), $501.0M in net income, and -$1.66B in free cash flow against $29.39B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PFSI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PFSI last traded at $64.41 (+1.56% on volume of 450,980 shares), positioning the stock -2.35% below its 50-day simple moving average ($65.96) and -23.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($84.46). Across its 52-week range of $57.52 to $160.36, PFSI sits at the 6.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($59.51 to $69.31).

PFSI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is PFSI's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for PFSI.

Direct Sub-Reports: PFSI RQD Cockpit PFSI 12M Forecast PFSI Earnings & Move PFSI Dividends & DRIP PFSI Insiders & 13F PFSI Whale Options PFSI Profit Sankey PFSI News & Why