Stock Ratings / Financials / PFS / forecast

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Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$23.17 +0.22% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.14

Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.02B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.14 (-0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 589.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PFS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PFS SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$22.09+0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$22.23+4.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$23.24-0.3% Next Q

Current

Grade C$23.17+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PFS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, PFS faces multiple-compression risk if 10.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($22.87) or 200D SMA ($22.64) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.59) toward Bear Floor ($18.40).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PFS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PFS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your PFS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $23.17: 431.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $18.40

$7,941

$-2,059 (-20.6%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $23.59

$10,181

+$181 (+1.8%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $27.84

$12,016

+$2,016 (+20.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$25	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$26	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$21	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PFS Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PFS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.16%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $23.09H $23.31L $22.87C $23.17VOL 955.9K

RES: $27.19SUP: $21.24SMA50: $22.87SMA200: $22.64

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PFS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PFS Butterfly Map → + Track PFS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-0.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PFS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PFS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PFS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PFS)

Financials Rank #427 of 1096 ⚔️ BKU vs PFS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PFS vs. BKU, CLBK, TFSL, EBC)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) ranks #427 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #366 by equity capitalization ($3.02B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PFS leads on earnings valuation at 10.4x trailing P/E, while PFS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.3% ROIC and — gross margin. EBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with PFS at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PFS ACTIVE Provident Financial Services Inc	C	62/100	10.4x	—	10.3%	+0.22%	$3.02B	Benchmark Subject
BKU BankUnited Inc.	C+	68/100	11.5x	—	8.8%	+1.38%	$3.09B	/bku-vs-pfs →
CLBK Columbia Financial Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	—	+0.56%	$2.89B	/clbk-vs-pfs →
TFSL TFS Financial Corporation	D	48/100	51.7x	—	4.8%	+0.54%	$4.70B	/tfsl-vs-pfs →
EBC Eastern Bankshares Inc.	C+	69/100	58.6x	—	0.7%	+0.53%	$5.17B	/ebc-vs-pfs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001178970

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) reported GAAP revenue of $73.1M (+7.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $68.3M , and +27.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $291.0M, operating cash flow of $442.3M, and free cash flow of $430.7M (+1.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, PFS closed FY2025 with $24.98B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$73.1M	$291.0M	$442.3M	$430.7M	$24.98B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$68.3M	$116.0M	$426.4M	$425.1M	$24.05B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$57.5M	$128.0M	$173.4M	$173.4M	—	—

3. PFS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PFS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Provident Financial Services Inc (NYSE: PFS) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $23.17 (+0.22% 1D, market cap $3.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PFS ranks #427 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PFS compare to BKU and CLBK in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), PFS carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.3%. By comparison, BKU (BankUnited Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $3.09B) and CLBK (Columbia Financial Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PFS leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while PFS leads on capital efficiency (10.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PFS?

Per PFS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001178970), Provident Financial Services Inc generated $73.1M in revenue (+7.1% YoY), $291.0M in net income, and $430.7M in free cash flow against $24.98B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PFS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PFS last traded at $23.17 (+0.22% on volume of 770,915 shares), positioning the stock +1.31% above its 50-day simple moving average ($22.87) and +2.34% above its 200-day simple moving average ($22.64). Across its 52-week range of $17.71 to $25.49, PFS sits at the 70.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.7% ($22.31 to $24.03).

PFS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is PFS's 12-month stock price target?

Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $23.59 (+1.8% from $23.17), with a bull-case target of $27.84 and a bear-case floor of $18.4.

Is PFS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates PFS C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 62/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: PFS RQD Cockpit PFS 12M Forecast PFS Earnings & Move PFS Dividends & DRIP PFS Insiders & 13F PFS Whale Options PFS Profit Sankey PFS News & Why