Stock Ratings / Financials / OVLY / forecast

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Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (OVLY) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$34.48 +0.76% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.46

Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (OVLY) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $290.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.46 (-0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OVLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OVLY SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 83% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 55 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$33.37+1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$33.95+0.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$34.11+1.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$34.48+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OVLY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, OVLY faces multiple-compression risk if 9.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($34.14) or 200D SMA ($33.45) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($36.19) toward Bear Floor ($28.23).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OVLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OVLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your OVLY Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $34.48: 290.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $28.23

$8,187

$-1,813 (-18.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $36.19

$10,496

+$496 (+5.0%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $42.70

$12,384

+$2,384 (+23.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$38	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$40	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$32	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OVLY Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

OVLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.23%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $34.73H $34.73L $33.99C $34.48VOL 11.5K

RES: $35.22SUP: $33.08SMA50: $34.14SMA200: $33.45

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OVLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OVLY Butterfly Map → + Track OVLY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-2.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OVLY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OVLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OVLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OVLY)

Financials Rank #195 of 1096 ⚔️ HWBK vs OVLY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (OVLY vs. HWBK, QNBC, BPRN, LCNB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (OVLY) ranks #195 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #817 by equity capitalization ($290.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OVLY leads on earnings valuation at 9.4x trailing P/E, while OVLY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.8% ROIC and — gross margin. OVLY currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OVLY ACTIVE Oak Valley Bancorp (CA)	C+	69/100	9.4x	—	14.8%	+0.76%	$290.1M	Benchmark Subject
HWBK Hawthorn Bancshares Inc.	C	63/100	12.2x	—	13.7%	+1.33%	$290.4M	/hwbk-vs-ovly →
QNBC QNB Corp.	C+	66/100	20.8x	—	10.9%	-0.32%	$293.1M	/qnbc-vs-ovly →
BPRN Princeton Bancorp Inc. (PA)	D+	57/100	15.8x	—	6.9%	-3.43%	$293.6M	/bprn-vs-ovly →
LCNB LCNB Corporation	C	65/100	12.3x	—	8.4%	+1.48%	$284.1M	/lcnb-vs-ovly →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001431567

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (OVLY) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $30.8M, operating cash flow of $28.7M, and free cash flow of $24.6M (+2.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, OVLY closed FY2025 with $2.02B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$30.8M	$28.7M	$24.6M	$2.02B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$24.9M	$25.6M	$23.9M	$1.90B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$23.9M	$33.1M	$33.1M	—	—

3. OVLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OVLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (NASDAQ: OVLY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $34.48 (+0.76% 1D, market cap $290.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, OVLY ranks #195 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OVLY compare to HWBK and QNBC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OVLY carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.8%. By comparison, HWBK (Hawthorn Bancshares Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $290.4M) and QNBC (QNB Corp.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 20.8x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $293.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OVLY leads on earnings multiple (9.4x) while OVLY leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OVLY?

Per OVLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001431567), Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) generated $0 in revenue, $30.8M in net income, and $24.6M in free cash flow against $2.02B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OVLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OVLY last traded at $34.48 (+0.76% on volume of 14,640 shares), positioning the stock +1.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($34.14) and +3.08% above its 200-day simple moving average ($33.45). Across its 52-week range of $27.21 to $35.97, OVLY sits at the 83.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($32.82 to $36.14).

OVLY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is OVLY's 12-month stock price target?

Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (OVLY) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $36.19 (+5% from $34.48), with a bull-case target of $42.7 and a bear-case floor of $28.23.

Is OVLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates OVLY C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 69/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: OVLY RQD Cockpit OVLY 12M Forecast OVLY Earnings & Move OVLY Dividends & DRIP OVLY Insiders & 13F OVLY Whale Options OVLY Profit Sankey OVLY News & Why