Stock Ratings / Health Care / OVID / earnings

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Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (OVID) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$2.56 +4.49% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.58

Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (OVID) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $500.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.58 (+0.62%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OVID)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OVID SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 11.46 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.46-12.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.15+0.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.16+18.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$2.56-7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OVID Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While OVID currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.54) and Max Pain ($2.69) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.27.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OVID• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OVID Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.32 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

OVID Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 40/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 180%

Model Bullish Setup (40/100)Model Risk Weight (60/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$7.3M	-$17.4M	-$38.3M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$566.0K	-$26.4M	-$56.0M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$392.0K	-$52.3M	-$45.8M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OVID)

✓Walkthrough of OVID's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

OVID // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.58%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $2.51H $2.70L $2.44C $2.56VOL 3.15M

RES: $2.93SUP: $2.08SMA50: $2.54SMA200: $2.36

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OVID Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OVID Butterfly Map → + Track OVID →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OVID today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OVID. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OVID today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OVID)

Health Care Rank #637 of 1016 ⚔️ MPLT vs OVID Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (OVID vs. MPLT, CTMX, PHAT, EOLS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (OVID) ranks #637 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #452 by equity capitalization ($500.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OVID leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CTMX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -20.5% ROIC and — gross margin. PHAT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with OVID at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OVID ACTIVE Ovid Therapeutics Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-28.5%	+4.49%	$500.0M	Benchmark Subject
MPLT MapLight Therapeutics Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-32.4%	-3.26%	$500.1M	/mplt-vs-ovid →
CTMX CytomX Therapeutics Inc.	E	20/100	—	—	-20.5%	-2.97%	$499.0M	/ctmx-vs-ovid →
PHAT Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D	46/100	—	87.1%	-35.0%	-0.95%	$503.2M	/phat-vs-ovid →
EOLS Evolus Inc.	E	21/100	—	66.3%	-35.0%	-1.51%	$496.7M	/eols-vs-ovid →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001636651

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (OVID) reported GAAP revenue of $7.3M (+1181.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $566.0K , and +1750.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$17.4M, operating cash flow of -$38.3M, and free cash flow of -$38.3M (+31.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, OVID closed FY2025 with $150.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 11.46, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$7.3M	-$17.4M	-$38.3M	-$38.3M	$150.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$566.0K	-$26.4M	-$56.0M	-$56.0M	$92.2M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$392.0K	-$52.3M	-$45.8M	-$45.8M	—	—

3. OVID Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OVID stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: OVID) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $2.56 (+4.49% 1D, market cap $500.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, OVID ranks #637 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OVID compare to MPLT and CTMX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), OVID carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -28.5%. By comparison, MPLT (MapLight Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.4%, cap $500.1M) and CTMX (CytomX Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.5%, cap $499.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OVID leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CTMX leads on capital efficiency (-20.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OVID?

Per OVID's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001636651), Ovid Therapeutics Inc. generated $7.3M in revenue (+1181.3% YoY), -$17.4M in net income, and -$38.3M in free cash flow against $150.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OVID trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OVID last traded at $2.56 (+4.49% on volume of 2,043,948 shares), positioning the stock +0.79% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.54) and +8.47% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.36). Across its 52-week range of $1.18 to $3.11, OVID sits at the 71.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.24 to $2.88).

OVID Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is OVID's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (OVID)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is OVID stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for OVID, spanning a range between $2.24 and $2.88.

Direct Sub-Reports: OVID RQD Cockpit OVID 12M Forecast OVID Earnings & Move OVID Dividends & DRIP OVID Insiders & 13F OVID Whale Options OVID Profit Sankey OVID News & Why