Stock Ratings / Health Care / OMDA / financials

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Omada Health Inc. (OMDA) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$19.65 +2.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.70

Omada Health Inc. (OMDA) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.20B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OMDA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OMDA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Omada Health Inc. (NASDAQ: OMDA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $19.65 (+2.45% 1D, market cap $1.20B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, OMDA ranks #228 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OMDA compare to INNV and USPH in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Nursing Services), OMDA carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 65.7%, and ROIC of -15.7%. By comparison, INNV (InnovAge Holding Corp.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.2%, cap $1.26B) and USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.6x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $1.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, USPH leads on earnings multiple (32.6x) while USPH leads on capital efficiency (11.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OMDA?

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Per OMDA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001611115), Omada Health Inc. generated $260.2M in revenue (+53.2% YoY), -$12.8M in net income, and $16.9M in free cash flow against $305.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.70 (+0.25%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 6.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OMDA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OMDA SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 8.93 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.5% FCF Margin ($16.9M FCF) & 65.7% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$21.87-17.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$18.06+6.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$19.24+2.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$19.65-0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (63) → D+ (55)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OMDA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, OMDA faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 63.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.66) or 200D SMA ($17.70) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($19.38) toward Bear Floor ($15.12).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OMDA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OMDA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How OMDA Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$16.9M (6.5% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $122.8M

FY24

Rev $169.8M

FY25

Rev $260.2M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$260.2M	65.7%	-4.6%	-$12.8M	$16.9M	-45%
FY 2024	$169.8M	60.6%	-25.7%	-$47.1M	-$34.8M	-45%
FY 2023	$122.8M	65.7%	-53.8%	-$67.5M	-$49.7M	-15.7%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OMDA)

✓Walkthrough of OMDA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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OMDA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +25.00%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $19.18H $19.65L $19.18C $19.65VOL 620.1K

RES: $27.01SUP: $17.33SMA50: $20.66SMA200: $17.70

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OMDA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OMDA Butterfly Map → + Track OMDA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +53.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OMDA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OMDA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OMDA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OMDA)

Health Care Rank #228 of 1016 ⚔️ INNV vs OMDA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (OMDA vs. INNV, USPH, PNTG, TDOC)

Industry: Medical/Nursing Services (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Omada Health Inc. (OMDA) ranks #228 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #338 by equity capitalization ($1.20B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, USPH leads on earnings valuation at 32.6x trailing P/E, while USPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.5% ROIC and 19.2% gross margin. USPH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with OMDA at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OMDA ACTIVE Omada Health Inc.	D+	55/100	—	65.7%	-15.7%	+2.45%	$1.20B	Benchmark Subject
INNV InnovAge Holding Corp.	D+	52/100	—	18.0%	-10.2%	+1.54%	$1.26B	/innv-vs-omda →
USPH U.S. Physical Therapy Inc.	B	72/100	32.6x	19.2%	11.5%	+1.47%	$1.29B	/usph-vs-omda →
PNTG The Pennant Group Inc.	C+	67/100	50.2x	—	11.0%	+0.76%	$1.48B	/pntg-vs-omda →
TDOC Teladoc Health Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	-17.0%	+26.89%	$1.59B	/tdoc-vs-omda →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001611115

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Omada Health Inc. (OMDA) reported GAAP revenue of $260.2M (+53.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $169.8M , and +111.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$12.8M, operating cash flow of $18.3M, and free cash flow of $16.9M (+148.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, OMDA closed FY2025 with $305.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.93, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$260.2M	-$12.8M	$18.3M	$16.9M	$305.4M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$169.8M	-$47.1M	-$34.2M	-$34.8M	$150.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$122.8M	-$67.5M	-$49.7M	-$49.7M	—	—

3. OMDA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OMDA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does OMDA compare to INNV and USPH in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OMDA?

Where is OMDA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OMDA last traded at $19.65 (+2.45% on volume of 620,107 shares), positioning the stock -4.89% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.66) and +11.02% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.70). Across its 52-week range of $10.28 to $26.13, OMDA sits at the 59.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.9% ($17.51 to $21.79).

OMDA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Omada Health Inc. (OMDA)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), OMDA converted $260.2M of revenue into a 65.7% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $16.9M in free cash flow (6.5% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: OMDA RQD Cockpit OMDA 12M Forecast OMDA Earnings & Move OMDA Dividends & DRIP OMDA Insiders & 13F OMDA Whale Options OMDA Profit Sankey OMDA News & Why