MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why OLN Stock dropped -2.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$16.05 -2.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.95
Olin Corporation (OLN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.83B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.95 (-0.65%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 3.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OLN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OLN SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (27% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 9% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 64.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.7% FCF Margin ($247.9M FCF) & 7.4% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 12 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$14.89+5.1% Next Q
40
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$15.65+0.1% Next Q
43
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$15.66+2.5% Next Q
45
CurrentGrade D$16.05-5.6% Hist 90D α
48
Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OLN Turnaround Squeeze
While OLN currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.44) and Max Pain ($16.85) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $31.98.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OLN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OLN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why OLN Stock dropped -2.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Olin Corporation (OLN) dropped -2.55% to $16.05, trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($14.64 – $30.46). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($14.64 – $30.46) with RSI-14 at 64.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.8% around $16.05 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 7.4% gross margin and $247.9M annual free cash flow.
Live OLN Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OLN)
- ✓Walkthrough of OLN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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OLN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -43.64%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $16.22H $17.74L $15.95C $16.05VOL 6.67M
RES: $19.06SUP: $13.85SMA50: $16.44SMA200: $22.33
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
OLN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
21.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +3.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OLN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OLN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OLN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OLN)
Materials Rank #178 of 270
⚔️ MTX vs OLN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (OLN vs. MTX, CC, STDN, HUN)
Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Olin Corporation (OLN) ranks #178 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #118 by equity capitalization ($1.83B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OLN leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MTX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.6% ROIC and 25.0% gross margin. STDN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with OLN at 48/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLN
ACTIVE
Olin Corporation | D | 48/100 | — | 7.4% | 0.1% | -2.55% | $1.83B | Benchmark Subject |
| MTX Minerals Technologies Inc. | D | 47/100 | — | 25.0% | 1.6% | -0.16% | $1.92B | /mtx-vs-oln → |
| CC Chemours Company | D | 48/100 | — | 15.5% | -35.0% | -1.27% | $1.99B | /cc-vs-oln → |
| STDN Standard Nuclear Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | — | +0.86% | $2.01B | /stdn-vs-oln → |
| HUN Huntsman Corporation | D | 51/100 | — | 13.2% | -2.6% | -1.54% | $1.57B | /hun-vs-oln → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000074303In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Olin Corporation (OLN) reported GAAP revenue of $6.78B (+3.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.54B , and -0.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$101.1M, operating cash flow of $474.2M, and free cash flow of $247.9M (-19.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, OLN closed FY2025 with $7.33B in total assets against $2.72B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.59, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $6.78B | -$101.1M | $474.2M | $247.9M | $7.33B | $2.72B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $6.54B | $105.0M | $503.2M | $308.1M | $7.58B | $2.71B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $6.83B | $452.0M | $974.3M | $974.3M | — | — |
3. OLN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs OLN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Olin Corporation (NYSE: OLN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $16.05 (-2.55% 1D, market cap $1.83B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, OLN ranks #178 in composite RQD confidence.
How does OLN compare to MTX and CC in the Materials sector?
Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), OLN carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 7.4%, and ROIC of 0.1%. By comparison, MTX (Minerals Technologies Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.6%, cap $1.92B) and CC (Chemours Company) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.99B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OLN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MTX leads on capital efficiency (1.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OLN?
Per OLN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000074303), Olin Corporation generated $6.78B in revenue (+3.7% YoY), -$101.1M in net income, and $247.9M in free cash flow against $7.33B in total assets and $2.72B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is OLN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
OLN last traded at $16.05 (-2.55% on volume of 4,835,603 shares), positioning the stock -2.37% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.44) and -28.12% below its 200-day simple moving average ($22.33). Across its 52-week range of $14.64 to $30.46, OLN sits at the 8.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($14.48 to $17.62).
OLN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is OLN stock moving today?
Why OLN Stock dropped -2.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.