Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / OESX / options

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Orion Energy Systems Inc. (OESX) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$20.40 +1.98% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.43

Orion Energy Systems Inc. (OESX) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $83.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.43 (+0.17%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OESX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OESX SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (31% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 52% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 33.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$25.83-12.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$22.52-12.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$19.69+3.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$20.40-8.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OESX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While OESX currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($25.39) and Max Pain ($21.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $33.23.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OESX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OESX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (OESX)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for OESX.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OESX)

✓Walkthrough of OESX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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OESX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +123.93%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $20.40H $21.47L $19.81C $20.40VOL 24.8K

RES: $40.12SUP: $20.06SMA50: $25.39SMA200: $14.98

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OESX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OESX Butterfly Map → + Track OESX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OESX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OESX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OESX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OESX)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #892 of 1011 ⚔️ PCLA vs OESX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (OESX vs. PCLA, SKYX, EFOI, LYTS)

Industry: Building Products (12 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orion Energy Systems Inc. (OESX) ranks #892 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #767 by equity capitalization ($83.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LYTS leads on earnings valuation at 31.6x trailing P/E, while OESX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -8.0% ROIC and 32.6% gross margin. PCLA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with OESX at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OESX ACTIVE Orion Energy Systems Inc.	D-	36/100	—	32.6%	-8.0%	+1.98%	$83.4M	Benchmark Subject
PCLA PicoCELA Inc.	C+	67/100	—	—	—	+86.09%	$106.7M	/pcla-vs-oesx →
SKYX SKYX Platforms Corp.	E	33/100	—	30.3%	-35.0%	-4.32%	$107.2M	/skyx-vs-oesx →
EFOI Energy Focus Inc.	D-	35/100	—	18.9%	-26.6%	+4.28%	$28.0M	/efoi-vs-oesx →
LYTS LSI Industries Inc.	C+	67/100	31.6x	24.7%	—	+1.03%	$771.1M	/lyts-vs-oesx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0001409375

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Orion Energy Systems Inc. (OESX) reported GAAP revenue of $86.3M (+8.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $79.7M , and -4.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$3.2M, operating cash flow of -$1.1M, and free cash flow of -$1.2M (-332.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, OESX closed FY2025 with $48.3M in total assets against $9.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-31	$86.3M	-$3.2M	-$1.1M	-$1.2M	$48.3M	$9.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-31	$79.7M	-$13.6M	$599.0K	$500.0K	$52.7M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-31	$90.6M	-$15.7M	-$10.1M	-$10.1M	—	—

3. OESX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OESX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Orion Energy Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: OESX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $20.40 (+1.98% 1D, market cap $83.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, OESX ranks #892 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OESX compare to PCLA and SKYX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Building Products), OESX carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 32.6%, and ROIC of -8.0%. By comparison, PCLA (PicoCELA Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $106.7M) and SKYX (SKYX Platforms Corp.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $107.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LYTS leads on earnings multiple (31.6x) while OESX leads on capital efficiency (-8.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OESX?

Per OESX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001409375), Orion Energy Systems Inc. generated $86.3M in revenue (+8.3% YoY), -$3.2M in net income, and -$1.2M in free cash flow against $48.3M in total assets and $9.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OESX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OESX last traded at $20.40 (+1.98% on volume of 9,404 shares), positioning the stock -19.65% below its 50-day simple moving average ($25.39) and +36.18% above its 200-day simple moving average ($14.98). Across its 52-week range of $8.35 to $31.65, OESX sits at the 51.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($17.85 to $22.95).

OESX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is OESX's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for OESX.

Direct Sub-Reports: OESX RQD Cockpit OESX 12M Forecast OESX Earnings & Move OESX Dividends & DRIP OESX Insiders & 13F OESX Whale Options OESX Profit Sankey OESX News & Why