Stock Ratings / Health Care / NVAX / earnings

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Novavax Inc. (NVAX) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$10.47 +1.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.48

Novavax Inc. (NVAX) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.73B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NVAX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NVAX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Novavax Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $10.47 (+1.45% 1D, market cap $1.73B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, NVAX ranks #261 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NVAX compare to MAZE and REPL in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), NVAX carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.9x, gross margin of 93.5%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, MAZE (Maze Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.77B) and REPL (Replimune Group Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NVAX leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while NVAX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVAX?

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Per NVAX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001000694), Novavax Inc. generated $1.12B in revenue (+64.7% YoY), $440.3M in net income, and -$244.6M in free cash flow against $1.18B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.48 (+0.07%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NVAX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NVAX SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 59% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 40.3% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$12.75-11.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$11.26-13.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$9.70+7.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$10.47-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NVAX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, NVAX faces multiple-compression risk if 3.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 91.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.46) or 200D SMA ($9.29) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.38) toward Bear Floor ($8.10).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NVAX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NVAX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$1.31 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

NVAX Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 56/100

Trailing EPS: $2.67 • YoY Revenue Growth: 64.7%

Model Bullish Setup (56/100)Model Risk Weight (44/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$1.12B	$440.3M	-$244.6M	93.5%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$682.2M	-$187.5M	-$87.3M	70.3%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$983.7M	-$545.1M	-$714.0M	92%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NVAX)

✓Walkthrough of NVAX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NVAX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +32.03%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $10.27H $10.65L $9.92C $10.47VOL 4.06M

RES: $14.26SUP: $9.03SMA50: $10.46SMA200: $9.29

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NVAX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NVAX Butterfly Map → + Track NVAX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +64.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NVAX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NVAX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NVAX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NVAX)

Health Care Rank #261 of 1016 ⚔️ MAZE vs NVAX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NVAX vs. MAZE, REPL, IMCR, COAG)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Novavax Inc. (NVAX) ranks #261 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #284 by equity capitalization ($1.73B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NVAX leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while NVAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 93.5% gross margin. COAG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with NVAX at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NVAX ACTIVE Novavax Inc.	D+	56/100	3.9x	93.5%	85.0%	+1.45%	$1.73B	Benchmark Subject
MAZE Maze Therapeutics Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	-35.0%	+0.63%	$1.77B	/maze-vs-nvax →
REPL Replimune Group Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-35.0%	+8.28%	$1.65B	/repl-vs-nvax →
IMCR Immunocore Holdings plc	E	31/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	-4.11%	$1.61B	/imcr-vs-nvax →
COAG Hemab Therapeutics Holdings Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	—	+4.99%	$1.89B	/coag-vs-nvax →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001000694

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Novavax Inc. (NVAX) reported GAAP revenue of $1.12B (+64.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $682.2M , and +14.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $440.3M, operating cash flow of -$244.6M, and free cash flow of -$244.6M (-180.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NVAX closed FY2025 with $1.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.12B	$440.3M	-$244.6M	-$244.6M	$1.18B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$682.2M	-$187.5M	-$87.3M	-$87.3M	$1.56B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$983.7M	-$545.1M	-$714.0M	-$714.0M	—	—

3. NVAX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NVAX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NVAX compare to MAZE and REPL in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVAX?

Where is NVAX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NVAX last traded at $10.47 (+1.45% on volume of 2,800,169 shares), positioning the stock +0.10% above its 50-day simple moving average ($10.46) and +12.70% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.29). Across its 52-week range of $6.20 to $13.39, NVAX sits at the 59.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($9.16 to $11.78).

NVAX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is NVAX's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Novavax Inc. (NVAX)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is NVAX stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for NVAX, spanning a range between $9.16 and $11.78.

Direct Sub-Reports: NVAX RQD Cockpit NVAX 12M Forecast NVAX Earnings & Move NVAX Dividends & DRIP NVAX Insiders & 13F NVAX Whale Options NVAX Profit Sankey NVAX News & Why