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Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$3.14 -2.18% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.12

Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $399.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.12 (-0.58%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NAUT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NAUT SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 66% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 57.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.25-8.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.06+57.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$3.24-3.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$3.14-7.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (33) → D- (41)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NAUT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NAUT currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.59) and Max Pain ($3.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.53.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NAUT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NAUT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How NAUT Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	0%	-$59.0M	-$52.0M	-35%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	0%	-$70.8M	-$61.3M	-35%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	0%	-$63.7M	-$51.7M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NAUT)

✓Walkthrough of NAUT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NAUT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.39%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $2.88H $3.14L $2.64C $3.14VOL 8.05M

RES: $2.60SUP: $0.93SMA50: $1.59SMA200: $2.12

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NAUT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NAUT Butterfly Map → + Track NAUT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NAUT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NAUT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NAUT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NAUT)

Health Care Rank #608 of 1016 ⚔️ LAB vs NAUT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NAUT vs. LAB, CTKB, PACB, QTRX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Laboratory Analytical Instruments (21 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT) ranks #608 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #480 by equity capitalization ($399.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NAUT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CTKB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.7% ROIC and 51.8% gross margin. NAUT currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NAUT ACTIVE Nautilus Biotechnology Inc.	D-	41/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.18%	$399.9M	Benchmark Subject
LAB Standard BioTools Inc.	D-	41/100	—	49.9%	-28.7%	+0.49%	$244.7M	/lab-vs-naut →
CTKB Cytek Biosciences Inc.	D-	41/100	—	51.8%	-12.7%	+2.61%	$818.9M	/ctkb-vs-naut →
PACB Pacific Biosciences of California Inc.	D-	37/100	—	28.6%	-35.0%	+2.47%	$901.4M	/pacb-vs-naut →
QTRX Quanterix Corporation	E	28/100	—	46.8%	-35.0%	+0.80%	$148.7M	/qtrx-vs-naut →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001808805

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$59.0M, operating cash flow of -$50.7M, and free cash flow of -$52.0M (+15.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, NAUT closed FY2025 with $191.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$59.0M	-$50.7M	-$52.0M	$191.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$70.8M	-$59.1M	-$61.3M	$242.7M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$63.7M	-$51.7M	-$51.7M	—	—

3. NAUT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NAUT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NASDAQ: NAUT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $3.14 (-2.18% 1D, market cap $399.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, NAUT ranks #608 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NAUT compare to LAB and CTKB in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Laboratory Analytical Instruments), NAUT carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LAB (Standard BioTools Inc.) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.7%, cap $244.7M) and CTKB (Cytek Biosciences Inc.) posts a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.7%, cap $818.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NAUT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CTKB leads on capital efficiency (-12.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NAUT?

Per NAUT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001808805), Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$59.0M in net income, and -$52.0M in free cash flow against $191.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NAUT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NAUT last traded at $3.14 (-2.18% on volume of 7,509,013 shares), positioning the stock +97.48% above its 50-day simple moving average ($1.59) and +48.11% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.12). Across its 52-week range of $0.84 to $4.31, NAUT sits at the 66.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.75 to $3.53).

NAUT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), NAUT converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: NAUT RQD Cockpit NAUT 12M Forecast NAUT Earnings & Move NAUT Dividends & DRIP NAUT Insiders & 13F NAUT Whale Options NAUT Profit Sankey NAUT News & Why