Stock Ratings / Health Care / MTVA / earnings

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MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$1.19 +4.39% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $7.8M

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RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.15 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MTVA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 47/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (47/100)Model Risk Weight (53/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	-$13.0M	-$15.7M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	-$27.6M	-$24.7M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	-$12.5M	-$10.8M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MTVA)

✓Walkthrough of MTVA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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MTVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -17.36%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $1.20H $1.29L $1.12C $1.19VOL 72.5K

RES: $1.21SUP: $1.10SMA50: $1.52SMA200: $1.68

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTVA Butterfly Map → + Track MTVA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTVA)

Health Care Rank #428 of 1016 ⚔️ TCRT vs MTVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MTVA vs. TCRT, KPRX, CURX, LEXX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) ranks #428 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #913 by equity capitalization ($7.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTVA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MTVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. MTVA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MTVA ACTIVE MetaVia Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	-35.0%	+4.39%	$7.8M	Benchmark Subject
TCRT Alaunos Therapeutics Inc.	E	31/100	—	—	-35.0%	-11.27%	$7.8M	/tcrt-vs-mtva →
KPRX Kiora Pharmaceuticals Inc.	E	32/100	—	—	-35.0%	-25.42%	$7.8M	/kprx-vs-mtva →
CURX Curanex Pharmaceuticals Inc	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.20%	$7.7M	/curx-vs-mtva →
LEXX Lexaria Bioscience Corp.	D	47/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	+14.24%	$7.9M	/lexx-vs-mtva →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001638287

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$13.0M, operating cash flow of -$15.7M, and free cash flow of -$15.7M (+36.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTVA closed FY2025 with $11.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$13.0M	-$15.7M	-$15.7M	$11.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$27.6M	-$24.7M	-$24.7M	$16.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$12.5M	-$10.8M	-$10.8M	—	—

3. MTVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MetaVia Inc. (NASDAQ: MTVA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $1.19 (+4.39% 1D, market cap $7.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MTVA ranks #428 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MTVA compare to TCRT and KPRX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MTVA carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TCRT (Alaunos Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.8M) and KPRX (Kiora Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTVA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MTVA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTVA?

Per MTVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001638287), MetaVia Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$13.0M in net income, and -$15.7M in free cash flow against $11.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MTVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTVA last traded at $1.19 (+4.39% on volume of 66,594 shares), positioning the stock -21.71% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.52) and -29.17% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.68). Across its 52-week range of $0.97 to $14.85, MTVA sits at the 1.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 32.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.04 to $1.34).

MTVA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MTVA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, MetaVia Inc. (MTVA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is MTVA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for MTVA, spanning a range between $1.04 and $1.34.

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