Stock Ratings / Health Care / MPLT / forecast

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MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$7.72 -3.26% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.66

MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $500.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MPLT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MPLT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: MPLT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $7.72 (-3.26% 1D, market cap $500.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MPLT ranks #677 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MPLT compare to OVID and CTMX in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MPLT carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -32.4%. By comparison, OVID (Ovid Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.5%, cap $500.0M) and CTMX (CytomX Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (14/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.5%, cap $499.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MPLT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CTMX leads on capital efficiency (-20.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPLT?

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Per MPLT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001770069), MapLight Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$161.2M in net income, and -$138.6M in free cash flow against $479.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.66 (-0.78%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPLT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MPLT SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 33.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$8.60-7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$8.00-4.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$7.66+0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$7.72-8.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MPLT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MPLT currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.38) and Max Pain ($8.11) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $42.45.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPLT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MPLT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MPLT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $7.72: 1295.3 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $5.40

$6,995

$-3,005 (-30.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $6.92

$8,964

$-1,036 (-10.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $42.45

$54,987

+$44,987 (+449.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$7	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$40	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$6	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MPLT)

✓Walkthrough of MPLT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MPLT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -73.02%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-02O $7.98H $7.98L $7.72C $7.72VOL 156.7K

RES: $4.60SUP: $6.50SMA50: $10.38SMA200: $20.46

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MPLT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MPLT Butterfly Map → + Track MPLT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPLT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPLT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPLT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPLT)

Health Care Rank #677 of 1016 ⚔️ OVID vs MPLT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MPLT vs. OVID, CTMX, PHAT, EOLS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) ranks #677 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #451 by equity capitalization ($500.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MPLT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CTMX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -20.5% ROIC and — gross margin. OVID currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 40/100 (D-) compared with MPLT at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MPLT ACTIVE MapLight Therapeutics Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-32.4%	-3.26%	$500.1M	Benchmark Subject
OVID Ovid Therapeutics Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-28.5%	+4.49%	$500.0M	/ovid-vs-mplt →
CTMX CytomX Therapeutics Inc.	E	14/100	—	—	-20.5%	-2.97%	$499.0M	/ctmx-vs-mplt →
PHAT Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc.	E	34/100	—	87.1%	-35.0%	-0.95%	$503.2M	/phat-vs-mplt →
EOLS Evolus Inc.	E	27/100	—	66.3%	-35.0%	-1.51%	$496.7M	/eols-vs-mplt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001770069

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$161.2M, operating cash flow of -$138.1M, and free cash flow of -$138.6M (-74.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPLT closed FY2025 with $479.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$161.2M	-$138.1M	-$138.6M	$479.5M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$77.6M	-$78.8M	-$79.6M	$136.9M	—

3. MPLT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MPLT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MPLT compare to OVID and CTMX in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPLT?

Where is MPLT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MPLT last traded at $7.72 (-3.26% on volume of 156,739 shares), positioning the stock -25.63% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.38) and -62.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($20.46). Across its 52-week range of $7.44 to $40.43, MPLT sits at the 0.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.76 to $8.68).

MPLT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MPLT's 12-month stock price target?

MapLight Therapeutics Inc. (MPLT) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $6.92 (-10.4% from $7.72), with a bull-case target of $42.45 and a bear-case floor of $5.4.