Stock Ratings / Financials / MPB / options

ORRF (73) FCBC (56) CCBG (70) GSBC (72) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$34.28 +0.21% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.23

Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $868.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MPB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MPB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Mid Penn Bancorp (NASDAQ: MPB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $34.28 (+0.21% 1D, market cap $868.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MPB ranks #494 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MPB compare to ORRF and FCBC in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MPB carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.9%. By comparison, ORRF (Orrstown Financial Services Inc.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $874.1M) and FCBC (First Community Bankshares Inc. (VA)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 72.8x, ROIC 2.4%, cap $875.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ORRF leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while ORRF leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPB?

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Per MPB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000879635), Mid Penn Bancorp generated $0 in revenue, $56.2M in net income, and $71.8M in free cash flow against $6.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.23 (-0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 1.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MPB SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.8% FCF Margin ($71.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$36.01-0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$35.92-4.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$34.41-0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$34.28+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (66) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MPB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, MPB faces multiple-compression risk if 15.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($36.08) or 200D SMA ($34.39) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($34.28) toward Bear Floor ($26.74).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MPB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.7%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MPB)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MPB.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MPB)

✓Walkthrough of MPB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MPB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.70%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $34.21H $34.28L $34.21C $34.28VOL 114.0K

RES: $36.57SUP: $33.70SMA50: $36.08SMA200: $34.39

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MPB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MPB Butterfly Map → + Track MPB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

7.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPB)

Financials Rank #494 of 1096 ⚔️ ORRF vs MPB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MPB vs. ORRF, FCBC, CCBG, GSBC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) ranks #494 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #583 by equity capitalization ($868.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ORRF leads on earnings valuation at 10.8x trailing P/E, while ORRF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and — gross margin. ORRF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MPB at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MPB ACTIVE Mid Penn Bancorp	D+	58/100	15.4x	—	6.9%	+0.21%	$868.7M	Benchmark Subject
ORRF Orrstown Financial Services Inc.	B	73/100	10.8x	—	13.7%	+0.68%	$874.1M	/orrf-vs-mpb →
FCBC First Community Bankshares Inc. (VA)	D+	56/100	72.8x	—	2.4%	-1.45%	$875.2M	/fcbc-vs-mpb →
CCBG Capital City Bank Group	B-	70/100	14.2x	—	11.1%	+0.73%	$875.9M	/ccbg-vs-mpb →
GSBC Great Southern Bancorp Inc.	B	72/100	12.4x	—	11.2%	+0.63%	$881.9M	/gsbc-vs-mpb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000879635

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $56.2M, operating cash flow of $80.0M, and free cash flow of $71.8M (+61.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPB closed FY2025 with $6.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$56.2M	$80.0M	$71.8M	$6.13B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$49.4M	$51.4M	$44.5M	$5.47B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$37.4M	$52.3M	$52.3M	—	—

3. MPB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MPB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MPB compare to ORRF and FCBC in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPB?

Where is MPB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MPB last traded at $34.28 (+0.21% on volume of 114,026 shares), positioning the stock -4.99% below its 50-day simple moving average ($36.08) and -0.32% below its 200-day simple moving average ($34.39). Across its 52-week range of $27.98 to $39.15, MPB sits at the 56.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($32.67 to $35.89).

MPB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MPB's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for MPB.

Direct Sub-Reports: MPB RQD Cockpit MPB 12M Forecast MPB Earnings & Move MPB Dividends & DRIP MPB Insiders & 13F MPB Whale Options MPB Profit Sankey MPB News & Why