Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / MED / forecast

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MEDIFAST INC (MED) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$12.26 -0.16% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.23

MEDIFAST INC (MED) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $137.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.23 (-0.22%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MED)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MED SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 72% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.3% FCF Margin ($1.2M FCF) & 71.3% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$11.61+2.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$11.88-0.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$11.87+3.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$12.26-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MED Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MED currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.99) and Max Pain ($12.87) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $14.12.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MED• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MED Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MED Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $12.26: 815.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $9.22

$7,520

$-2,480 (-24.8%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $11.82

$9,641

$-359 (-3.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $14.12

$11,517

+$1,517 (+15.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$12	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$13	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$11	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MED)

✓Walkthrough of MED's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MED // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.79%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $12.24H $12.48L $12.00C $12.26VOL 231.9K

RES: $13.45SUP: $11.33SMA50: $11.99SMA200: $11.32

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MED Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MED Butterfly Map → + Track MED →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -36.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MED today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MED. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MED today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MED)

Consumer Staples Rank #92 of 146 ⚔️ BYND vs MED Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (MED vs. BYND, BGS, OTLY, AFRI)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MEDIFAST INC (MED) ranks #92 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #99 by equity capitalization ($137.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MED leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while BGS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.3% ROIC and 21.8% gross margin. MED currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MED ACTIVE MEDIFAST INC	D	50/100	—	71.3%	-10.2%	-0.16%	$137.1M	Benchmark Subject
BYND Beyond Meat Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.51%	$126.9M	/bynd-vs-med →
BGS B&G Foods Inc.	D	45/100	—	21.8%	3.3%	+9.71%	$183.7M	/bgs-vs-med →
OTLY Oatly Group AB	D	49/100	—	—	—	-6.54%	$255.3M	/otly-vs-med →
AFRI Forafric Global PLC	E	21/100	—	10.4%	-16.5%	-0.08%	$340.6M	/afri-vs-med →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000910329

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MEDIFAST INC (MED) reported GAAP revenue of $385.8M (-36.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $602.5M , and -64.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$19.0M, operating cash flow of $6.9M, and free cash flow of $1.2M (-92.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MED closed FY2025 with $248.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.71, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$385.8M	-$19.0M	$6.9M	$1.2M	$248.0M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$602.5M	$2.0M	$24.5M	$17.0M	$284.2M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.07B	$99.0M	$147.7M	$147.7M	—	—

3. MED Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MED stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MEDIFAST INC (NYSE: MED) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $12.26 (-0.16% 1D, market cap $137.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, MED ranks #92 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MED compare to BYND and BGS in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), MED carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 71.3%, and ROIC of -10.2%. By comparison, BYND (Beyond Meat Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $126.9M) and BGS (B&G Foods Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.3%, cap $183.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MED leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while BGS leads on capital efficiency (3.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MED?

Per MED's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000910329), MEDIFAST INC generated $385.8M in revenue (-36.0% YoY), -$19.0M in net income, and $1.2M in free cash flow against $248.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MED trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MED last traded at $12.26 (-0.16% on volume of 124,467 shares), positioning the stock +2.25% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.99) and +8.30% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.32). Across its 52-week range of $9.22 to $13.45, MED sits at the 71.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($11.38 to $13.14).

MED Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MED's 12-month stock price target?

MEDIFAST INC (MED) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $11.82 (-3.6% from $12.26), with a bull-case target of $14.12 and a bear-case floor of $9.22.