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Pediatrix Medical Group Inc. (MD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$29.18 +0.93% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.30

Pediatrix Medical Group Inc. (MD) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 34% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $2.37B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.30 (+0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 6.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MD SCORES 74/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.8% FCF Margin ($271.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$26.64+2.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$27.38+7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$29.29-0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade B$29.18+7.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (66) → B (74)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, MD faces multiple-compression risk if 14.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($26.93) or 200D SMA ($23.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($31.28) toward Bear Floor ($23.93).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 74%NO 26%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $29.18: 342.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $23.93

$8,201

$-1,799 (-18.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $31.28

$10,720

+$720 (+7.2%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $36.91

$12,649

+$2,649 (+26.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	OUTPERFORM	$33	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	STRONG BUY	$35	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$28	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MD Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +29.63%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $29.48H $29.97L $29.07C $29.18VOL 1.11M

RES: $30.35SUP: $25.55SMA50: $26.93SMA200: $23.87

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MD Butterfly Map → + Track MD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

6.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MD)

Health Care Rank #53 of 1016 ⚔️ BKD vs MD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MD vs. BKD, SGRY, ARDT, NHC)

Industry: Hospital/Nursing Management (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Pediatrix Medical Group Inc. (MD) ranks #53 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #228 by equity capitalization ($2.37B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARDT leads on earnings valuation at 12.8x trailing P/E, while MD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.6% ROIC and — gross margin. MD currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MD ACTIVE Pediatrix Medical Group Inc.	B	74/100	14.3x	—	33.6%	+0.93%	$2.37B	Benchmark Subject
BKD Brookdale Senior Living Inc.	D	46/100	—	26.2%	0.3%	+2.91%	$2.45B	/bkd-vs-md →
SGRY Surgery Partners Inc.	C+	66/100	—	—	9.9%	-0.13%	$3.04B	/sgry-vs-md →
ARDT Ardent Health Inc.	C+	67/100	12.8x	—	10.5%	+3.10%	$1.73B	/ardt-vs-md →
NHC National HealthCare Corporation	C+	69/100	27.7x	—	10.1%	+0.18%	$3.32B	/nhc-vs-md →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000893949

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Pediatrix Medical Group Inc. (MD) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $165.4M, operating cash flow of $271.1M, and free cash flow of $271.1M (+31.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MD closed FY2025 with $2.25B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$165.4M	$271.1M	$271.1M	$2.25B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$99.1M	$206.6M	$206.6M	$2.15B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$60.4M	$137.3M	$137.3M	—	—

3. MD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Pediatrix Medical Group Inc. (NYSE: MD) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $29.18 (+0.93% 1D, market cap $2.37B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MD ranks #53 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MD compare to BKD and SGRY in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Hospital/Nursing Management), MD carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 33.6%. By comparison, BKD (Brookdale Senior Living Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.3%, cap $2.45B) and SGRY (Surgery Partners Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 9.9%, cap $3.04B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARDT leads on earnings multiple (12.8x) while MD leads on capital efficiency (33.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MD?

Per MD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000893949), Pediatrix Medical Group Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $165.4M in net income, and $271.1M in free cash flow against $2.25B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MD last traded at $29.18 (+0.93% on volume of 832,584 shares), positioning the stock +8.35% above its 50-day simple moving average ($26.93) and +22.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($23.87). Across its 52-week range of $17.23 to $30.55, MD sits at the 89.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 71.7 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.7% ($27.22 to $31.14).

MD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MD's 12-month stock price target?

Pediatrix Medical Group Inc. (MD) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $31.28 (+7.2% from $29.18), with a bull-case target of $36.91 and a bear-case floor of $23.93.

Is MD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MD B (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 74/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: MD RQD Cockpit MD 12M Forecast MD Earnings & Move MD Dividends & DRIP MD Insiders & 13F MD Whale Options MD Profit Sankey MD News & Why