Stock Ratings / Health Care / MBX / financials

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MBX Biosciences Inc. (MBX) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$54.54 +0.70% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $54.51

MBX Biosciences Inc. (MBX) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.63B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $54.51 (-0.06%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MBX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MBX SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 65% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 53.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$53.24-6.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$49.61-2.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$48.50+12.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D$54.54-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MBX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MBX currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($57.82) and Max Pain ($57.27) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $76.27.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MBX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MBX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MBX Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	-2.5%	-$87.0M	-$81.9M	-26.4%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	-1.7%	-$61.9M	-$55.6M	-25.9%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	-0.9%	-$32.6M	-$32.0M	-26.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MBX)

✓Walkthrough of MBX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MBX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +80.48%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $53.72H $56.57L $52.28C $54.54VOL 667.3K

RES: $57.11SUP: $47.15SMA50: $57.82SMA200: $45.58

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MBX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MBX Butterfly Map → + Track MBX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MBX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MBX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MBX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MBX)

Health Care Rank #503 of 1016 ⚔️ ZLAB vs MBX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MBX vs. ZLAB, BHVN, NAMS, VRDN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MBX Biosciences Inc. (MBX) ranks #503 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #218 by equity capitalization ($2.63B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MBX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MBX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -26.4% ROIC and — gross margin. BHVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with MBX at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MBX ACTIVE MBX Biosciences Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-26.4%	+0.70%	$2.63B	Benchmark Subject
ZLAB Zai Lab Limited	E	26/100	—	58.3%	-35.0%	-2.95%	$2.51B	/zlab-vs-mbx →
BHVN Biohaven Ltd.	D	46/100	—	—	-35.0%	+6.25%	$2.49B	/bhvn-vs-mbx →
NAMS NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V.	D-	38/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.47%	$2.48B	/nams-vs-mbx →
VRDN Viridian Therapeutics Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	-35.0%	+2.18%	$2.81B	/vrdn-vs-mbx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001776111

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MBX Biosciences Inc. (MBX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$87.0M, operating cash flow of -$79.9M, and free cash flow of -$81.9M (-47.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, MBX closed FY2025 with $385.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$87.0M	-$79.9M	-$81.9M	$385.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$61.9M	-$54.7M	-$55.6M	$268.5M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$32.6M	-$32.0M	-$32.0M	—	—

3. MBX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MBX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MBX Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: MBX) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $54.54 (+0.70% 1D, market cap $2.63B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MBX ranks #503 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MBX compare to ZLAB and BHVN in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MBX carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -26.4%. By comparison, ZLAB (Zai Lab Limited) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.51B) and BHVN (Biohaven Ltd.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.49B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MBX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MBX leads on capital efficiency (-26.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MBX?

Per MBX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001776111), MBX Biosciences Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$87.0M in net income, and -$81.9M in free cash flow against $385.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MBX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MBX last traded at $54.54 (+0.70% on volume of 257,248 shares), positioning the stock -5.67% below its 50-day simple moving average ($57.82) and +19.66% above its 200-day simple moving average ($45.58). Across its 52-week range of $20.21 to $72.64, MBX sits at the 65.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($47.72 to $61.36).

MBX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is MBX Biosciences Inc. (MBX)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), MBX converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: MBX RQD Cockpit MBX 12M Forecast MBX Earnings & Move MBX Dividends & DRIP MBX Insiders & 13F MBX Whale Options MBX Profit Sankey MBX News & Why