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Moleculin Biotech Inc. (MBRX) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$8.72 -0.29% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.70

Moleculin Biotech Inc. (MBRX) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $9.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.70 (-0.24%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MBRX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MBRX SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (35% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$8.84-36.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$5.60+16.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$6.50+34.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$8.72-6.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MBRX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MBRX currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.84) and Max Pain ($9.16) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $330.75.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MBRX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MBRX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

44.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE

L: $3$8.72H: $315

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 4 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 14 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on MBRX

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (20)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (48)

14/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MBRX

✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MBRX)

✓Walkthrough of MBRX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MBRX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -82.97%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $8.80H $9.00L $7.90C $8.72VOL 31.7K

RES: $8.74SUP: $4.62SMA50: $10.84SMA200: $40.39

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MBRX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MBRX Butterfly Map → + Track MBRX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MBRX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MBRX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MBRX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MBRX)

Health Care Rank #561 of 1016 ⚔️ BFRG vs MBRX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MBRX vs. BFRG, INM, PTN, CMMB)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Moleculin Biotech Inc. (MBRX) ranks #561 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #902 by equity capitalization ($9.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MBRX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MBRX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. INM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with MBRX at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MBRX ACTIVE Moleculin Biotech Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.29%	$9.2M	Benchmark Subject
BFRG Bullfrog AI Holdings Inc.	D-	40/100	—	18.8%	-35.0%	+3.88%	$9.4M	/bfrg-vs-mbrx →
INM InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D	47/100	—	34.5%	-35.0%	+1.61%	$8.9M	/inm-vs-mbrx →
PTN Palatin Technologies Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-35.0%	-3.33%	$8.8M	/ptn-vs-mbrx →
CMMB Chemomab Therapeutics Ltd.	D-	38/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.91%	$8.8M	/cmmb-vs-mbrx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001659617

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Moleculin Biotech Inc. (MBRX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $33.6M, operating cash flow of -$22.7M, and free cash flow of -$22.7M (+4.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, MBRX closed FY2025 with $22.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$33.6M	-$22.7M	-$22.7M	$22.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$26.0M	-$23.9M	-$23.9M	$16.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$29.8M	-$23.6M	-$23.6M	—	—

3. MBRX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MBRX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Moleculin Biotech Inc. (NASDAQ: MBRX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $8.72 (-0.29% 1D, market cap $9.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MBRX ranks #561 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MBRX compare to BFRG and INM in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MBRX carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BFRG (Bullfrog AI Holdings Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $9.4M) and INM (InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $8.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MBRX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MBRX leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MBRX?

Per MBRX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001659617), Moleculin Biotech Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $33.6M in net income, and -$22.7M in free cash flow against $22.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MBRX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MBRX last traded at $8.72 (-0.29% on volume of 34,035 shares), positioning the stock -19.56% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.84) and -78.41% below its 200-day simple moving average ($40.39). Across its 52-week range of $3.22 to $315.00, MBRX sits at the 1.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($7.63 to $9.81).

MBRX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MBRX stock right now?

Moleculin Biotech Inc. (MBRX) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 43/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is MBRX's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MBRX's 12-month base price target is $8.13 (range $6.34 to $330.75), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: MBRX RQD Cockpit MBRX 12M Forecast MBRX Earnings & Move MBRX Dividends & DRIP MBRX Insiders & 13F MBRX Whale Options MBRX Profit Sankey MBRX News & Why