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Why LYCA Stock surged +10.70% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$27.73 +10.70% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.21
Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.44B
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Is LYCA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: LYCA) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $27.73 (+10.70% 1D, market cap $1.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, LYCA ranks #214 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does LYCA compare to TSHA and IMCR in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), LYCA carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, TSHA (Taysha Gene Therapies Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.38B) and IMCR (Immunocore Holdings plc) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.61B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LYCA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TSHA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LYCA?
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For Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #214 in Health Care, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.21 (+1.74%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LYCA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LYCA SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (22% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 68% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 82.2 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$25.23+3.3% Next Q
51
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$26.07+1% Next Q
54
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$26.34+5.3% Next Q
56
CurrentGrade C-$27.73+0.2% Hist 90D α
59
Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the LYCA Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, LYCA faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($25.36) or 200D SMA ($26.63) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($27.85) toward Bear Floor ($21.72).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LYCA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LYCA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why LYCA Stock surged +10.70% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA) surged +10.70% to $27.73, trading at 68% of its 52-week range ($23.58 – $29.68). Solid steady margins (steady margins), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 68% of its 52-week range ($23.58 – $29.68) with RSI-14 at 82.2 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.2% around $27.73 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $40.4M annual free cash flow.
Live LYCA Headlines & Catalysts
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MARKET WIRECNBC • 9h ago
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MARKET WIRECNBC • 9h ago
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RISK WATCHReuters • 10h ago
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (LYCA Tape Review)
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LYCA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.36%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $28.17H $28.51L $28.03C $27.73VOL 18.50M
RES: $29.21SUP: $27.32SMA50: $25.36SMA200: $26.63
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
LYCA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LYCA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LYCA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LYCA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LYCA)
Health Care Rank #214 of 1016
⚔️ TSHA vs LYCA Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (LYCA vs. TSHA, IMCR, REPL, VOR)
Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA) ranks #214 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #309 by equity capitalization ($1.44B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LYCA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TSHA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. LYCA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 59/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYCA
ACTIVE
Lycia Therapeutics Inc. | C- | 59/100 | — | — | — | +10.70% | $1.44B | Benchmark Subject |
| TSHA Taysha Gene Therapies Inc. | D- | 43/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -0.24% | $1.38B | /tsha-vs-lyca → |
| IMCR Immunocore Holdings plc | E | 31/100 | — | 96.0% | -35.0% | -4.11% | $1.61B | /imcr-vs-lyca → |
| REPL Replimune Group Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +8.28% | $1.65B | /repl-vs-lyca → |
| VOR Vor Biopharma Inc. | D- | 37/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +1.26% | $1.24B | /vor-vs-lyca → |
2. LYCA Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics
TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOTLycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA) operates in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (Health Care) with an equity capitalization of $1.44B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.
3. LYCA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs LYCA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: LYCA) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $27.73 (+10.70% 1D, market cap $1.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, LYCA ranks #214 in composite RQD confidence.
How does LYCA compare to TSHA and IMCR in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), LYCA carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, TSHA (Taysha Gene Therapies Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.38B) and IMCR (Immunocore Holdings plc) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.61B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LYCA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TSHA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LYCA?
For Lycia Therapeutics Inc. (LYCA), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #214 in Health Care, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is LYCA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
LYCA last traded at $27.73 (+10.70% on volume of 173,176 shares), positioning the stock +9.35% above its 50-day simple moving average ($25.36) and +4.13% above its 200-day simple moving average ($26.63). Across its 52-week range of $23.58 to $29.68, LYCA sits at the 68.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 82.2 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.2% ($26.57 to $28.89).
LYCA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is LYCA stock moving today?
Why LYCA Stock surged +10.70% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (steady margins), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.