Stock Ratings / Financials / LOB / forecast

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Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$35.07 +1.18% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.23

Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 9% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $1.62B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.23 (+0.45%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 3.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LOB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY LOB SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 38% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 37.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$34.48+1.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$34.91+0.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$35.15-0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$35.07+6.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the LOB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, LOB faces multiple-compression risk if 15.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.17) or 200D SMA ($38.10) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($37.12) toward Bear Floor ($28.76).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LOB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “LOB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your LOB Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $35.07: 285.1 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $28.76

$8,201

$-1,799 (-18.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $37.12

$10,585

+$585 (+5.8%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $46.76

$13,333

+$3,333 (+33.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	OUTPERFORM	$39	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$44	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$33	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (LOB Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

LOB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.73%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $35.17H $35.27L $34.29C $35.07VOL 173.9K

RES: $36.05SUP: $32.38SMA50: $37.17SMA200: $38.10

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LOB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LOB Butterfly Map → + Track LOB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

7.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LOB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LOB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LOB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LOB)

Financials Rank #119 of 1096 ⚔️ CASH vs LOB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (LOB vs. CASH, BFC, NBHC, QCRH)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) ranks #119 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #470 by equity capitalization ($1.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CASH leads on earnings valuation at 8.6x trailing P/E, while CASH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.8% ROIC and — gross margin. NBHC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with LOB at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
LOB ACTIVE Live Oak Bancshares Inc.	B-	71/100	15.3x	—	8.5%	+1.18%	$1.62B	Benchmark Subject
CASH Pathward Financial Inc.	C+	69/100	8.6x	—	21.8%	+0.88%	$1.59B	/cash-vs-lob →
BFC Bank First Corporation	D+	55/100	23.4x	—	11.1%	+1.85%	$1.67B	/bfc-vs-lob →
NBHC National Bank Holdings Corporation	B	72/100	15.3x	—	7.9%	+0.21%	$1.67B	/nbhc-vs-lob →
QCRH QCR Holdings Inc.	C+	69/100	13.2x	—	11.4%	+1.37%	$1.68B	/qcrh-vs-lob →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001462120

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $105.9M, operating cash flow of $158.2M, and free cash flow of $143.5M (+33.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, LOB closed FY2025 with $15.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$105.9M	$158.2M	$143.5M	$15.13B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$77.5M	$156.8M	$107.5M	$12.94B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$73.9M	$184.9M	$184.9M	—	—

3. LOB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LOB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (NYSE: LOB) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $35.07 (+1.18% 1D, market cap $1.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, LOB ranks #119 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LOB compare to CASH and BFC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), LOB carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.5%. By comparison, CASH (Pathward Financial Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 8.6x, ROIC 21.8%, cap $1.59B) and BFC (Bank First Corporation) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 23.4x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $1.67B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CASH leads on earnings multiple (8.6x) while CASH leads on capital efficiency (21.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LOB?

Per LOB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001462120), Live Oak Bancshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $105.9M in net income, and $143.5M in free cash flow against $15.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LOB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LOB last traded at $35.07 (+1.18% on volume of 243,240 shares), positioning the stock -5.65% below its 50-day simple moving average ($37.17) and -7.95% below its 200-day simple moving average ($38.10). Across its 52-week range of $29.36 to $44.53, LOB sits at the 37.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.4% ($32.83 to $37.31).

LOB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is LOB's 12-month stock price target?

Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $37.12 (+5.8% from $35.07), with a bull-case target of $46.76 and a bear-case floor of $28.76.

Is LOB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates LOB B- (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 71/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: LOB RQD Cockpit LOB 12M Forecast LOB Earnings & Move LOB Dividends & DRIP LOB Insiders & 13F LOB Whale Options LOB Profit Sankey LOB News & Why