MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Oil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war - ReutersOil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war Reuters
Why KREF Stock surged +3.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$5.83 +3.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.86
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $334.1M
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Is KREF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (NYSE: KREF) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $5.83 (+3.55% 1D, market cap $334.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, KREF ranks #768 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does KREF compare to LAND and CHCT in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), KREF carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.0%. By comparison, LAND (Gladstone Land Corporation) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 2.0%, cap $336.9M) and CHCT (Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 73.3x, ROIC 1.2%, cap $373.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FPI leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while FPI leads on capital efficiency (5.9% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KREF?
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Per KREF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001631596), KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$47.1M in net income, and $72.3M in free cash flow against $6.46B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.86 (+0.45%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 1.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KREF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY KREF SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 15% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 34.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (19% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.8% FCF Margin ($72.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)
Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$5.97-2.8% Next Q
60
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$5.80-0.7% Next Q
57
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$5.76+1.2% Next Q
55
CurrentGrade D+$5.83-1.1% Hist 90D α
52
Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a KREF Turnaround Squeeze
While KREF currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (10/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.55) and Max Pain ($6.12) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.57.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KREF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “KREF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why KREF Stock surged +3.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) surged +3.55% to $5.83, trading at 15% of its 52-week range ($5.25 – $9.11). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 15% of its 52-week range ($5.25 – $9.11) with RSI-14 at 34.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.3% around $5.83 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $72.3M annual free cash flow.
Live KREF Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 3h ago
Nine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say - ReutersNine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
MARKET WIRECNBC • 7h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 7h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 8h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 10h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KREF)
- ✓Walkthrough of KREF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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KREF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.89%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $5.93H $5.93L $5.29C $5.83VOL 952.8K
RES: $8.57SUP: $5.34SMA50: $6.55SMA200: $6.88
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
KREF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KREF today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KREF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KREF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KREF)
Financials Rank #768 of 1096
⚔️ LAND vs KREF Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (KREF vs. LAND, CHCT, PINE, FPI)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) ranks #768 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #791 by equity capitalization ($334.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FPI leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while FPI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.9% ROIC and — gross margin. PINE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with KREF at 52/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KREF
ACTIVE
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. | D+ | 52/100 | — | — | -4.0% | +3.55% | $334.1M | Benchmark Subject |
| LAND Gladstone Land Corporation | D | 47/100 | 24.9x | — | 2.0% | -6.80% | $336.9M | /land-vs-kref → |
| CHCT Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated | D+ | 58/100 | 73.3x | — | 1.2% | +2.35% | $373.9M | /chct-vs-kref → |
| PINE Alpine Income Property Trust Inc. | C | 62/100 | — | — | 3.8% | +2.16% | $296.9M | /pine-vs-kref → |
| FPI Farmland Partners Inc. | D | 49/100 | 12.2x | — | 5.9% | -13.13% | $384.0M | /fpi-vs-kref → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001631596In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$47.1M, operating cash flow of $72.3M, and free cash flow of $72.3M (-45.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, KREF closed FY2025 with $6.46B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$47.1M | $72.3M | $72.3M | $6.46B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $35.6M | $132.6M | $132.6M | $6.35B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | -$30.9M | $155.7M | $155.7M | — | — |
3. KREF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs KREF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (NYSE: KREF) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $5.83 (+3.55% 1D, market cap $334.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, KREF ranks #768 in composite RQD confidence.
How does KREF compare to LAND and CHCT in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), KREF carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.0%. By comparison, LAND (Gladstone Land Corporation) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 2.0%, cap $336.9M) and CHCT (Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 73.3x, ROIC 1.2%, cap $373.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FPI leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while FPI leads on capital efficiency (5.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KREF?
Per KREF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001631596), KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$47.1M in net income, and $72.3M in free cash flow against $6.46B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is KREF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
KREF last traded at $5.83 (+3.55% on volume of 1,203,097 shares), positioning the stock -10.99% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.55) and -15.26% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.88). Across its 52-week range of $5.25 to $9.11, KREF sits at the 15.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.3% ($5.23 to $6.43).
KREF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is KREF stock moving today?
Why KREF Stock surged +3.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.