Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / JAKK / financials

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JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$32.29 -0.62% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.19

JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $372.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.19 (-0.30%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JAKK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY JAKK SCORES 33/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.3% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 95% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 69.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 12.6% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$28.23+1.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$28.53+7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$30.52+5.8% Next Q

Current

Grade E$32.29-8.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (25) → E (33)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a JAKK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While JAKK currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($26.67) and Max Pain ($33.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $34.88.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JAKK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “JAKK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 33%NO 67%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How JAKK Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $711.6M

FY24

Rev $691.0M

FY25

Rev $113.3M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$113.3M	98%	12.6%	$9.87B	-$1.1M	5.7%
FY 2024	$691.0M	30.8%	5.7%	$34.20B	$27.7M	18.4%
FY 2023	$711.6M	92%	8.3%	$38.11B	$66.4M	5.7%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring JAKK)

✓Walkthrough of JAKK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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JAKK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +48.39%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $32.12H $32.58L $31.10C $32.29VOL 255.4K

RES: $35.35SUP: $25.62SMA50: $26.67SMA200: $23.07

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JAKK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 JAKK Butterfly Map → + Track JAKK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -65.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JAKK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JAKK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JAKK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JAKK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #925 of 1011 ⚔️ FNKO vs JAKK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (JAKK vs. FNKO, BBW, JOUT, ESCA)

Industry: Recreational Games/Products/Toys (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) ranks #925 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #628 by equity capitalization ($372.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BBW leads on earnings valuation at 6.5x trailing P/E, while BBW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.7% ROIC and 55.8% gross margin. BBW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 83/100 (A-) compared with JAKK at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
JAKK ACTIVE JAKKS Pacific Inc.	E	33/100	—	96.0%	5.7%	-0.62%	$372.0M	Benchmark Subject
FNKO Funko Inc. (Class A)	D-	40/100	—	—	-10.4%	+1.52%	$374.6M	/fnko-vs-jakk →
BBW Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc.	A-	83/100	6.5x	55.8%	33.7%	+9.18%	$338.5M	/bbw-vs-jakk →
JOUT Johnson Outdoors Inc. (Class A)	C-	59/100	—	35.1%	-4.5%	+2.30%	$484.4M	/jout-vs-jakk →
ESCA Escalade Incorporated	B+	79/100	20.2x	26.9%	8.0%	+8.63%	$277.2M	/esca-vs-jakk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001009829

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) reported GAAP revenue of $113.3M (-83.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $691.0M , and -84.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $9.87B, operating cash flow of $8.5M, and free cash flow of -$1.1M (-103.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, JAKK closed FY2025 with $442.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.72, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$113.3M	$9.87B	$8.5M	-$1.1M	$442.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$691.0M	$34.20B	$38.9M	$27.7M	$444.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$711.6M	$38.11B	$66.4M	$66.4M	—	—

3. JAKK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JAKK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, JAKKS Pacific Inc. (NASDAQ: JAKK) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $32.29 (-0.62% 1D, market cap $372.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, JAKK ranks #925 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JAKK compare to FNKO and BBW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Recreational Games/Products/Toys), JAKK carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of 5.7%. By comparison, FNKO (Funko Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.4%, cap $374.6M) and BBW (Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc.) posts a A- grade (83/100 RQD, P/E 6.5x, ROIC 33.7%, cap $338.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BBW leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while BBW leads on capital efficiency (33.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JAKK?

Per JAKK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001009829), JAKKS Pacific Inc. generated $113.3M in revenue (-83.6% YoY), $9.87B in net income, and -$1.1M in free cash flow against $442.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JAKK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JAKK last traded at $32.29 (-0.62% on volume of 251,107 shares), positioning the stock +21.07% above its 50-day simple moving average ($26.67) and +39.97% above its 200-day simple moving average ($23.07). Across its 52-week range of $14.87 to $33.22, JAKK sits at the 94.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 69.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($29.93 to $34.65).

JAKK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), JAKK converted $113.3M of revenue into a 163.4% gross margin, 12.6% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: JAKK RQD Cockpit JAKK 12M Forecast JAKK Earnings & Move JAKK Dividends & DRIP JAKK Insiders & 13F JAKK Whale Options JAKK Profit Sankey JAKK News & Why