MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why JAGX Stock dropped -2.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$2.04 -2.86% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.03
Jaguar Health Inc. (JAGX) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $15.9M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.03 (-0.70%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JAGX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY JAGX SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (26% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (26% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 39.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$4.79-26.3% Next Q
39
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$3.53-42.2% Next Q
36
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$2.04+0% Next Q
34
CurrentGrade E$2.04-9.4% Hist 90D α
31
Trajectory: E (39) → E (31)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a JAGX Turnaround Squeeze
While JAGX currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.46) and Max Pain ($2.14) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1,157.63.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JAGX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “JAGX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why JAGX Stock dropped -2.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Jaguar Health Inc. (JAGX) dropped -2.86% to $2.04, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($1.6 – $1102.5). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($1.6 – $1102.5) with RSI-14 at 39.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $2.04 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 67.2% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live JAGX Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring JAGX)
- ✓Walkthrough of JAGX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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JAGX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -98.05%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $2.00H $2.04L $1.60C $2.04VOL 371.2K
RES: $39.31SUP: $-7.12SMA50: $6.46SMA200: $120.1
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
JAGX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -1.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JAGX today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JAGX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JAGX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JAGX)
Health Care Rank #934 of 1016
⚔️ RADX vs JAGX Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (JAGX vs. RADX, NCEL, CTXR, NEUP)
Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Jaguar Health Inc. (JAGX) ranks #934 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #854 by equity capitalization ($15.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JAGX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NEUP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -11.8% ROIC and — gross margin. RADX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with JAGX at 31/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAGX
ACTIVE
Jaguar Health Inc. | E | 31/100 | — | 67.2% | -35.0% | -2.86% | $15.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| RADX Radiopharm Theranostics Limited | C- | 61/100 | — | — | — | +17.52% | $16.1M | /radx-vs-jagx → |
| NCEL NewcelX Ltd. | D- | 39/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -0.30% | $15.5M | /ncel-vs-jagx → |
| CTXR Citius Pharmaceuticals Inc. | D | 49/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +4.07% | $15.5M | /ctxr-vs-jagx → |
| NEUP Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc. | E | 32/100 | — | — | -11.8% | -8.93% | $16.6M | /neup-vs-jagx → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001585608In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Jaguar Health Inc. (JAGX) reported GAAP revenue of $11.5M (-1.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.7M , and +17.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$54.0K, operating cash flow of -$23.7M, and free cash flow of -$23.7M (+19.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, JAGX closed FY2025 with $38.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $11.5M | -$54.0K | -$23.7M | -$23.7M | $38.3M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $11.7M | -$39.3K | -$29.4M | -$29.4M | $53.4M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $9.8M | -$41.9K | -$33.2M | -$33.2M | — | — |
3. JAGX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs JAGX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Jaguar Health Inc. (NASDAQ: JAGX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $2.04 (-2.86% 1D, market cap $15.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, JAGX ranks #934 in composite RQD confidence.
How does JAGX compare to RADX and NCEL in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), JAGX carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 67.2%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, RADX (Radiopharm Theranostics Limited) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $16.1M) and NCEL (NewcelX Ltd.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $15.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JAGX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NEUP leads on capital efficiency (-11.8% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JAGX?
Per JAGX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001585608), Jaguar Health Inc. generated $11.5M in revenue (-1.5% YoY), -$54.0K in net income, and -$23.7M in free cash flow against $38.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is JAGX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
JAGX last traded at $2.04 (-2.86% on volume of 291,768 shares), positioning the stock -68.42% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.46) and -98.30% below its 200-day simple moving average ($120.10). Across its 52-week range of $1.60 to $1,102.50, JAGX sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.78 to $2.30).
JAGX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is JAGX stock moving today?
Why JAGX Stock dropped -2.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.