Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HNST / financials

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The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

Q: Is HNST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, The Honest Company Inc. (NASDAQ: HNST) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $4.59 (+0.44% 1D, market cap $492.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HNST ranks #515 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does HNST compare to DDL and QVCG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Catalog/Specialty Distribution), HNST carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 33.3%, and ROIC of -18.2%. By comparison, DDL (Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (each two representing three )) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 65.3%, cap $455.9M) and QVCG (QVC Group Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $379.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DDL leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while DDL leads on capital efficiency (65.3% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HNST?

Per HNST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001530979), The Honest Company Inc. generated $371.3M in revenue (-1.9% YoY), -$15.7M in net income, and $13.6M in free cash flow against $225.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is HNST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HNST last traded at $4.59 (+0.44% on volume of 1,765,098 shares), positioning the stock -12.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.22) and +21.43% above its 200-day simple moving average ($3.78). Across its 52-week range of $2.07 to $6.01, HNST sits at the 64.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 23.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.9% ($4.18 to $5.00).

Q: How profitable is The Honest Company Inc. (HNST)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), HNST converted $371.3M of revenue into a 33.3% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $13.6M in free cash flow (3.7% FCF margin).

$4.59 +0.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.58

The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $492.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.58 (-0.11%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 3.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HNST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HNST SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 64% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 23 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.7% FCF Margin ($13.6M FCF) & 33.3% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$5.07-1.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$5.00-4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$4.80-4.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$4.59-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HNST Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, HNST faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($5.22) or 200D SMA ($3.78) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.55) toward Bear Floor ($3.55).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HNST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HNST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How HNST Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$13.6M (3.7% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $344.4M

FY24

Rev $378.3M

FY25

Rev $371.3M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$371.3M	33.3%	-5%	-$15.7M	$13.6M	-18.2%
FY 2024	$378.3M	38.2%	-1.7%	-$6.1M	$1.0M	-5.1%
FY 2023	$344.4M	33.3%	-11.3%	-$39.2M	$19.4M	-18.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HNST)

✓Walkthrough of HNST's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HNST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +31.14%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $4.56H $4.59L $4.16C $4.59VOL 3.70M

RES: $6.93SUP: $4.24SMA50: $5.22SMA200: $3.78

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HNST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HNST Butterfly Map → + Track HNST →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HNST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HNST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HNST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HNST)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #515 of 1011 ⚔️ DDL vs HNST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HNST vs. DDL, QVCG, SFIX, BWMX)

Industry: Catalog/Specialty Distribution (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) ranks #515 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #589 by equity capitalization ($492.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DDL leads on earnings valuation at 13.8x trailing P/E, while DDL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 65.3% ROIC and — gross margin. DDL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with HNST at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HNST ACTIVE The Honest Company Inc.	D+	56/100	—	33.3%	-18.2%	+0.44%	$492.4M	Benchmark Subject
DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (each two representing three )	C+	66/100	13.8x	—	65.3%	-0.51%	$455.9M	/ddl-vs-hnst →
QVCG QVC Group Inc.	D-	36/100	—	33.6%	-35.0%	-2.19%	$379.0M	/qvcg-vs-hnst →
SFIX Stitch Fix Inc. (Class A)	E	28/100	—	44.4%	-33.9%	+2.99%	$368.7M	/sfix-vs-hnst →
BWMX Betterware de Mexico S.A.P.I. de C.V.	D+	58/100	—	—	—	+2.70%	$674.8M	/bwmx-vs-hnst →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001530979

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) reported GAAP revenue of $371.3M (-1.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $378.3M , and +7.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$15.7M, operating cash flow of $15.1M, and free cash flow of $13.6M (+1246.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, HNST closed FY2025 with $225.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.37, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$371.3M	-$15.7M	$15.1M	$13.6M	$225.4M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$378.3M	-$6.1M	$1.5M	$1.0M	$247.4M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$344.4M	-$39.2M	$19.4M	$19.4M	—	—

3. HNST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HNST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, The Honest Company Inc. (NASDAQ: HNST) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $4.59 (+0.44% 1D, market cap $492.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HNST ranks #515 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HNST compare to DDL and QVCG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Catalog/Specialty Distribution), HNST carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 33.3%, and ROIC of -18.2%. By comparison, DDL (Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (each two representing three )) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 65.3%, cap $455.9M) and QVCG (QVC Group Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $379.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DDL leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while DDL leads on capital efficiency (65.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HNST?

Per HNST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001530979), The Honest Company Inc. generated $371.3M in revenue (-1.9% YoY), -$15.7M in net income, and $13.6M in free cash flow against $225.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HNST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HNST last traded at $4.59 (+0.44% on volume of 1,765,098 shares), positioning the stock -12.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.22) and +21.43% above its 200-day simple moving average ($3.78). Across its 52-week range of $2.07 to $6.01, HNST sits at the 64.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 23.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.9% ($4.18 to $5.00).

HNST Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is The Honest Company Inc. (HNST)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), HNST converted $371.3M of revenue into a 33.3% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $13.6M in free cash flow (3.7% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: HNST RQD Cockpit HNST 12M Forecast HNST Earnings & Move HNST Dividends & DRIP HNST Insiders & 13F HNST Whale Options HNST Profit Sankey HNST News & Why