MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why HCM Stock surged +2.03% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$13.59 +2.03% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.61
HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $2.37B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.61 (+0.18%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HCM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HCM SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (26% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.63 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (26% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 58% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$14.10-0.4% Next Q
54
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$14.05+2.2% Next Q
51
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$14.36-5.4% Next Q
49
CurrentGrade D$13.59-6.1% Hist 90D α
46
Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HCM Turnaround Squeeze
While HCM currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.65) and Max Pain ($14.27) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.15.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HCM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HCM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why HCM Stock surged +2.03% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM) surged +2.03% to $13.59, trading at 58% of its 52-week range ($9.77 – $16.33). Stretched risk/reward at 5x P/E (-3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 58% of its 52-week range ($9.77 – $16.33) with RSI-14 at 41.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.6% around $13.59 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 38.7% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live HCM Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HCM)
- ✓Walkthrough of HCM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HCM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.12%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $13.35H $13.59L $13.14C $13.59VOL 33.5K
RES: $16.54SUP: $13.20SMA50: $13.65SMA200: $13.22
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
HCM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-13.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -13.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HCM today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HCM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HCM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HCM)
Health Care Rank #439 of 1016
⚔️ RCUS vs HCM Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (HCM vs. RCUS, PGEN, PHVS, SUPN)
Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM) ranks #439 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #227 by equity capitalization ($2.37B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HCM leads on earnings valuation at 5.2x trailing P/E, while HCM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -2.5% ROIC and — gross margin. PHVS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with HCM at 46/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCM
ACTIVE
HUTCHMED (China) Limited | D | 46/100 | 5.2x | — | -2.5% | +2.03% | $2.37B | Benchmark Subject |
| RCUS Arcus Biosciences Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +1.20% | $2.37B | /rcus-vs-hcm → |
| PGEN Precigen Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +9.21% | $2.38B | /pgen-vs-hcm → |
| PHVS Pharvaris N.V. | C | 63/100 | — | — | — | +2.32% | $2.34B | /phvs-vs-hcm → |
| SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. | D+ | 56/100 | — | 89.6% | -4.5% | +1.85% | $2.43B | /supn-vs-hcm → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001648257In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM) reported GAAP revenue of $548.5M (-13.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $630.2M , and -34.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $456.9M, operating cash flow of -$64.7M, and free cash flow of -$78.8M (-352.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, HCM closed FY2025 with $1.75B in total assets against $68.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.63, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $548.5M | $456.9M | -$64.7M | -$78.8M | $1.75B | $68.2M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $630.2M | $37.7M | $497.0K | -$17.4M | $1.27B | $59.4M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $838.0M | $100.8M | $219.3M | $219.3M | — | — |
3. HCM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HCM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, HUTCHMED (China) Limited (NASDAQ: HCM) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $13.59 (+2.03% 1D, market cap $2.37B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, HCM ranks #439 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HCM compare to RCUS and PGEN in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), HCM carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -2.5%. By comparison, RCUS (Arcus Biosciences Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.37B) and PGEN (Precigen Inc.) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.38B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCM leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while HCM leads on capital efficiency (-2.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HCM?
Per HCM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001648257), HUTCHMED (China) Limited generated $548.5M in revenue (-13.0% YoY), $456.9M in net income, and -$78.8M in free cash flow against $1.75B in total assets and $68.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HCM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HCM last traded at $13.59 (+2.03% on volume of 34,280 shares), positioning the stock -0.44% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.65) and +2.80% above its 200-day simple moving average ($13.22). Across its 52-week range of $9.77 to $16.33, HCM sits at the 58.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($12.83 to $14.35).
HCM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is HCM stock moving today?
Why HCM Stock surged +2.03% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 5x P/E (-3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.