Stock Ratings / Health Care / GERN / forecast

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Geron Corporation (GERN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: What is GERN's 12-month stock price target?

Geron Corporation (GERN) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $0.86 (-9.5% from $0.95), with a bull-case target of $2.11 and a bear-case floor of $0.67.

Q: Is GERN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates GERN D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 37/100.

$0.95 -2.30% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.94

Geron Corporation (GERN) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $607.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.94 (-0.60%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GERN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GERN SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$1.23-4.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$1.17-4.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$1.12-15.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$0.95-8.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GERN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GERN currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.29) and Max Pain ($1.00) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.11.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GERN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GERN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your GERN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $0.95: 10526.3 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $0.67

$7,053

$-2,947 (-29.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $0.86

$9,053

$-947 (-9.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $2.11

$22,211

+$12,211 (+122.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$1	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$2	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$1	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GERN)

✓Walkthrough of GERN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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GERN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -38.31%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $0.93H $0.95L $0.86C $0.95VOL 18.81M

RES: $1.57SUP: $0.83SMA50: $1.29SMA200: $1.43

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GERN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GERN Butterfly Map → + Track GERN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GERN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GERN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GERN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GERN)

Health Care Rank #744 of 1016 ⚔️ NVCT vs GERN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (GERN vs. NVCT, ZVRA, IRWD, CRMD)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Geron Corporation (GERN) ranks #744 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #418 by equity capitalization ($607.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CRMD leads on earnings valuation at 3.7x trailing P/E, while IRWD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. IRWD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with GERN at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GERN ACTIVE Geron Corporation	D-	37/100	—	—	-20.2%	-2.30%	$607.9M	Benchmark Subject
NVCT Nuvectis Pharma Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.14%	$605.6M	/nvct-vs-gern →
ZVRA Zevra Therapeutics Inc.	D-	40/100	7.4x	—	-32.3%	+0.49%	$615.2M	/zvra-vs-gern →
IRWD Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Class A)	C+	69/100	24.9x	—	85.0%	+0.28%	$598.2M	/irwd-vs-gern →
CRMD CorMedix Inc.	C	62/100	3.7x	88.5%	45.5%	-6.83%	$595.5M	/crmd-vs-gern →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000886744

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Geron Corporation (GERN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$83.5M, operating cash flow of -$111.0M, and free cash flow of -$111.0M (+49.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, GERN closed FY2025 with $570.5M in total assets against $119.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$83.5M	-$111.0M	-$111.0M	$570.5M	$119.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$174.6M	-$218.6M	-$219.3M	$593.8M	$118.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$237.0K	-$184.1M	-$167.7M	-$167.7M	—	—

3. GERN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GERN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $0.95 (-2.30% 1D, market cap $607.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, GERN ranks #744 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GERN compare to NVCT and ZVRA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), GERN carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -20.2%. By comparison, NVCT (Nuvectis Pharma Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $605.6M) and ZVRA (Zevra Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 7.4x, ROIC -32.3%, cap $615.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRMD leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while IRWD leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GERN?

Per GERN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000886744), Geron Corporation generated $0 in revenue, -$83.5M in net income, and -$111.0M in free cash flow against $570.5M in total assets and $119.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GERN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GERN last traded at $0.95 (-2.30% on volume of 32,350,447 shares), positioning the stock -26.36% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.29) and -33.57% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.43). Across its 52-week range of $0.84 to $2.01, GERN sits at the 9.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 22.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.07).

GERN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is GERN's 12-month stock price target?

Geron Corporation (GERN) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $0.86 (-9.5% from $0.95), with a bull-case target of $2.11 and a bear-case floor of $0.67.

Is GERN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates GERN D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 37/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: GERN RQD Cockpit GERN 12M Forecast GERN Earnings & Move GERN Dividends & DRIP GERN Insiders & 13F GERN Whale Options GERN Profit Sankey GERN News & Why