MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why GDOT Stock advanced +1.06% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$12.39 +1.06% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.39
Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A) (GDOT) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $706.0M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.39 (+0.00%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 3.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GDOT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GDOT SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (28% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.3% FCF Margin ($66.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (22% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 63% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 12 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$12.61-3.3% Next Q
73
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B$12.20+1.3% Next Q
70
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$12.36+0.2% Next Q
68
CurrentGrade C$12.39+1.3% Hist 90D α
65
Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GDOT Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 65/100 (C) score, GDOT faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.77) or 200D SMA ($12.51) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.78) toward Bear Floor ($9.97).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GDOT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GDOT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why GDOT Stock advanced +1.06% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A) (GDOT) advanced +1.06% to $12.39, trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($10.1 – $13.75). Solid steady margins (31% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($10.1 – $13.75) with RSI-14 at 45 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±3.8% around $12.39 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $66.0M annual free cash flow.
Live GDOT Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (GDOT Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
GDOT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.27%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $12.50H $12.50L $12.25C $12.39VOL 262.8K
RES: $13.43SUP: $11.32SMA50: $12.77SMA200: $12.51
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
GDOT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-11.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +19.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GDOT today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GDOT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GDOT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GDOT)
Financials Rank #323 of 1096
⚔️ LU vs GDOT Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (GDOT vs. LU, BTGO, FINV, CGBD)
Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A) (GDOT) ranks #323 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #623 by equity capitalization ($706.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CGBD leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while GDOT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.6% ROIC and — gross margin. GDOT currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDOT
ACTIVE
Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A) | C | 65/100 | — | — | 30.6% | +1.06% | $706.0M | Benchmark Subject |
| LU Lufax Holding Ltd (each representing twenty (20) ) | D | 48/100 | — | — | — | -2.94% | $687.3M | /lu-vs-gdot → |
| BTGO BitGo Holdings Inc. (Class A) | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -0.17% | $680.6M | /btgo-vs-gdot → |
| FINV FinVolution Group | C- | 60/100 | — | — | 15.4% | +0.71% | $672.9M | /finv-vs-gdot → |
| CGBD Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. | D | 50/100 | 10.6x | — | 6.0% | +2.27% | $743.8M | /cgbd-vs-gdot → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001386278In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A) (GDOT) reported GAAP revenue of $1.99B (+19.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.66B , and +36.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$98.9M, operating cash flow of $138.6M, and free cash flow of $66.0M (+830.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, GDOT closed FY2025 with $5.99B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.99B | -$98.9M | $138.6M | $66.0M | $5.99B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.66B | -$26.7M | $81.4M | $7.1M | $5.43B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.46B | $6.7M | $97.5M | $97.5M | — | — |
3. GDOT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs GDOT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A) (NYSE: GDOT) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $12.39 (+1.06% 1D, market cap $706.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, GDOT ranks #323 in composite RQD confidence.
How does GDOT compare to LU and BTGO in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), GDOT carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.6%. By comparison, LU (Lufax Holding Ltd (each representing twenty (20) )) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $687.3M) and BTGO (BitGo Holdings Inc. (Class A)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $680.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CGBD leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while GDOT leads on capital efficiency (30.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GDOT?
Per GDOT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001386278), Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A) generated $1.99B in revenue (+19.8% YoY), -$98.9M in net income, and $66.0M in free cash flow against $5.99B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is GDOT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
GDOT last traded at $12.39 (+1.06% on volume of 205,737 shares), positioning the stock -2.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.77) and -0.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.51). Across its 52-week range of $10.10 to $13.75, GDOT sits at the 62.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.8% ($11.92 to $12.86).
GDOT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is GDOT stock moving today?
Why GDOT Stock advanced +1.06% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (31% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.