Stock Ratings / Financials / FGBI / forecast

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First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$9.59 -1.84% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.54

First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $161.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FGBI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FGBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: FGBI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $9.59 (-1.84% 1D, market cap $161.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FGBI ranks #935 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FGBI compare to LSBK and BVFL in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), FGBI carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, LSBK (Lake Shore Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 20.6x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $149.5M) and BVFL (BV Financial Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 14.0x, ROIC 7.3%, cap $189.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGYR leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while MGYR leads on capital efficiency (8.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FGBI?

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Per FGBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001408534), First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$56.0M in net income, and -$10.0M in free cash flow against $4.08B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.54 (-0.52%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FGBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FGBI SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (35% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$8.37-1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$8.21+6.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$8.71+10.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$9.59-7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FGBI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FGBI currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.43) and Max Pain ($10.07) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $11.57.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FGBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FGBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your FGBI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $9.59: 1042.8 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $6.87

$7,164

$-2,836 (-28.4%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $8.81

$9,187

$-813 (-8.1%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $11.57

$12,065

+$2,065 (+20.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$9	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$11	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$8	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FGBI)

✓Walkthrough of FGBI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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FGBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.56%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $9.35H $9.77L $9.35C $9.59VOL 36.6K

RES: $10.88SUP: $7.28SMA50: $8.43SMA200: $9.03

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FGBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FGBI Butterfly Map → + Track FGBI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FGBI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FGBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FGBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FGBI)

Financials Rank #935 of 1096 ⚔️ LSBK vs FGBI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FGBI vs. LSBK, BVFL, FNWD, MGYR)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) ranks #935 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #918 by equity capitalization ($161.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGYR leads on earnings valuation at 13.4x trailing P/E, while MGYR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.0% ROIC and — gross margin. BVFL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with FGBI at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FGBI ACTIVE First Guaranty Bancshares Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-16.1%	-1.84%	$161.6M	Benchmark Subject
LSBK Lake Shore Bancorp Inc.	C+	68/100	20.6x	—	5.1%	-1.84%	$149.5M	/lsbk-vs-fgbi →
BVFL BV Financial Inc.	C+	69/100	14.0x	—	7.3%	-1.93%	$189.1M	/bvfl-vs-fgbi →
FNWD Finward Bancorp	C+	66/100	23.5x	—	4.6%	-1.34%	$190.2M	/fnwd-vs-fgbi →
MGYR Magyar Bancorp Inc.	C+	68/100	13.4x	—	8.0%	+10.18%	$130.7M	/mgyr-vs-fgbi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001408534

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$56.0M, operating cash flow of -$8.3M, and free cash flow of -$10.0M (-132.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FGBI closed FY2025 with $4.08B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$56.0M	-$8.3M	-$10.0M	$4.08B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$12.4M	$33.7M	$30.7M	$3.97B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$9.2M	$21.7M	$21.7M	—	—

3. FGBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FGBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FGBI compare to LSBK and BVFL in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FGBI?

Where is FGBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FGBI last traded at $9.59 (-1.84% on volume of 35,145 shares), positioning the stock +13.76% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.43) and +6.20% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.03). Across its 52-week range of $4.31 to $11.02, FGBI sits at the 78.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.8% ($8.75 to $10.43).

FGBI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is FGBI's 12-month stock price target?

First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. (FGBI) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $8.81 (-8.1% from $9.59), with a bull-case target of $11.57 and a bear-case floor of $6.87.