MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why FDMT Stock slipped -1.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$12.78 -1.16% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.73
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $706.0M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.73 (-0.40%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FDMT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FDMT SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (35% of score)
Altman Z-Score 5.17 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$13.33-8.9% Next Q
48
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$12.14-11% Next Q
45
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$10.80+18.3% Next Q
43
CurrentGrade D-$12.78-7.4% Hist 90D α
40
Trajectory: D (48) → D- (40)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FDMT Turnaround Squeeze
While FDMT currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.72) and Max Pain ($13.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.78.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FDMT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FDMT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FDMT Stock slipped -1.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) slipped -1.16% to $12.78, trading at 58% of its 52-week range ($6.96 – $16.93). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-28% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 58% of its 52-week range ($6.96 – $16.93) with RSI-14 at 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $12.78 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live FDMT Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 6h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FDMT)
- ✓Walkthrough of FDMT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FDMT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +44.08%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $12.49H $12.88L $11.73C $12.78VOL 683.5K
RES: $17.31SUP: $10.71SMA50: $13.72SMA200: $10.87
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FDMT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FDMT today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FDMT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FDMT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FDMT)
Health Care Rank #633 of 1016
⚔️ ATTO vs FDMT Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (FDMT vs. ATTO, SLDB, IAM, CADL)
Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) ranks #633 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #399 by equity capitalization ($706.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FDMT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while FDMT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -28.3% ROIC and — gross margin. IAM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with FDMT at 40/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDMT
ACTIVE
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. | D- | 40/100 | — | — | -28.3% | -1.16% | $706.0M | Benchmark Subject |
| ATTO Attovia Therapeutics Inc. | D | 47/100 | — | — | — | -3.35% | $697.1M | /atto-vs-fdmt → |
| SLDB Solid Biosciences Inc. | E | 31/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -1.39% | $685.2M | /sldb-vs-fdmt → |
| IAM Iambic Therapeutics Inc. | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -3.38% | $676.9M | /iam-vs-fdmt → |
| CADL Candel Therapeutics Inc. | D- | 38/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -0.23% | $661.9M | /cadl-vs-fdmt → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001650648In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) reported GAAP revenue of $85.2M (+230194.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $37.0K , and +311.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$140.1M, operating cash flow of -$109.1M, and free cash flow of -$109.6M (+20.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, FDMT closed FY2025 with $566.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.17, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $85.2M | -$140.1M | -$109.1M | -$109.6M | $566.7M | $0 |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $37.0K | -$160.9M | -$134.6M | -$138.4M | $560.4M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $20.7M | -$100.8M | -$75.8M | -$75.8M | — | — |
3. FDMT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FDMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: FDMT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $12.78 (-1.16% 1D, market cap $706.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, FDMT ranks #633 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FDMT compare to ATTO and SLDB in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), FDMT carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -28.3%. By comparison, ATTO (Attovia Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $697.1M) and SLDB (Solid Biosciences Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $685.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FDMT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while FDMT leads on capital efficiency (-28.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FDMT?
Per FDMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001650648), 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. generated $85.2M in revenue (+230194.6% YoY), -$140.1M in net income, and -$109.6M in free cash flow against $566.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FDMT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FDMT last traded at $12.78 (-1.16% on volume of 848,942 shares), positioning the stock -6.85% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.72) and +17.57% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.87). Across its 52-week range of $6.96 to $16.93, FDMT sits at the 58.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($11.18 to $14.38).
FDMT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FDMT stock moving today?
Why FDMT Stock slipped -1.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-28% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.