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First Business Financial Services Inc. (FBIZ) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$73.76 +1.39% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $73.80

First Business Financial Services Inc. (FBIZ) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $617.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $73.80 (+0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 1.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FBIZ)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FBIZ SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.5% FCF Margin ($61.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$69.36+1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$70.52+2.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$72.43+1.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C$73.76+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FBIZ Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, FBIZ faces multiple-compression risk if 12.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($70.99) or 200D SMA ($62.35) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($75.75) toward Bear Floor ($59.09).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FBIZ• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FBIZ Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERBOUGHT (>70)

72.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE88% OF RANGE

L: $49$73.76H: $77

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on FBIZ

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (70)

13.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 9.90% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (62)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like FBIZ

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FBIZ Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FBIZ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +31.25%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $74.22H $77.18L $72.79C $73.76VOL 360.2K

RES: $74.04SUP: $67.32SMA50: $70.99SMA200: $62.35

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FBIZ Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FBIZ Butterfly Map → + Track FBIZ →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FBIZ today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FBIZ. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FBIZ today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FBIZ)

Financials Rank #355 of 1096 ⚔️ CIVB vs FBIZ Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FBIZ vs. CIVB, UNTY, SFST, CARE)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Business Financial Services Inc. (FBIZ) ranks #355 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #660 by equity capitalization ($617.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UNTY leads on earnings valuation at 10.1x trailing P/E, while UNTY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.8% ROIC and — gross margin. CIVB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with FBIZ at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FBIZ ACTIVE First Business Financial Services Inc.	C	64/100	12.3x	—	13.5%	+1.39%	$617.2M	Benchmark Subject
CIVB Civista Bancshares Inc.	B-	70/100	12.8x	—	8.5%	+1.03%	$592.0M	/civb-vs-fbiz →
UNTY Unity Bancorp Inc.	C+	67/100	10.1x	—	16.8%	+0.64%	$583.5M	/unty-vs-fbiz →
SFST Southern First Bancshares Inc.	C	63/100	19.0x	—	8.2%	-0.18%	$576.5M	/sfst-vs-fbiz →
CARE Carter Bankshares Inc.	C	64/100	21.1x	—	7.5%	-1.09%	$662.5M	/care-vs-fbiz →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001521951

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Business Financial Services Inc. (FBIZ) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $50.3M, operating cash flow of $61.7M, and free cash flow of $61.1M (+6.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, FBIZ closed FY2025 with $4.08B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$50.3M	$61.7M	$61.1M	$4.08B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$44.2M	$57.5M	$57.3M	$3.85B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$37.0M	$52.3M	$52.3M	—	—

3. FBIZ Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FBIZ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, First Business Financial Services Inc. (NASDAQ: FBIZ) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $73.76 (+1.39% 1D, market cap $617.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FBIZ ranks #355 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FBIZ compare to CIVB and UNTY in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FBIZ carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.5%. By comparison, CIVB (Civista Bancshares Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 12.8x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $592.0M) and UNTY (Unity Bancorp Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 10.1x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $583.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UNTY leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while UNTY leads on capital efficiency (16.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FBIZ?

Per FBIZ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001521951), First Business Financial Services Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $50.3M in net income, and $61.1M in free cash flow against $4.08B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FBIZ trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FBIZ last traded at $73.76 (+1.39% on volume of 59,213 shares), positioning the stock +3.90% above its 50-day simple moving average ($70.99) and +18.30% above its 200-day simple moving average ($62.35). Across its 52-week range of $49.36 to $77.18, FBIZ sits at the 87.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 72.6 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.1% ($70.00 to $77.52).

FBIZ Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell FBIZ stock right now?

First Business Financial Services Inc. (FBIZ) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (14% return on capital), mixed timing at 12x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is FBIZ's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

FBIZ's 12-month base price target is $75.75 (range $59.09 to $89.38), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: FBIZ RQD Cockpit FBIZ 12M Forecast FBIZ Earnings & Move FBIZ Dividends & DRIP FBIZ Insiders & 13F FBIZ Whale Options FBIZ Profit Sankey FBIZ News & Why