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Why ERAS Stock dropped -2.09% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$14.05 -2.09% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.97

Erasca Inc. (ERAS) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $5.02B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ERAS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Erasca Inc. (NASDAQ: ERAS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $14.05 (-2.09% 1D, market cap $5.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ERAS ranks #665 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ERAS compare to PTCT and TVTX in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ERAS carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PTCT (PTC Therapeutics Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 7.9x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $5.01B) and TVTX (Travere Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.0%, cap $4.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PTCT leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while PTCT leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ERAS?
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Per ERAS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001761918), Erasca Inc. generated $394.5M in revenue (-21.5% YoY), -$124.5M in net income, and -$95.6M in free cash flow against $396.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.97 (-0.57%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510033
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (6)Whales (8)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.2% Base Target
$25 Bull$12 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE ERAS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ERAS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ERAS SCORES 33/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
41
Grade D$15.46-11.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
38
Grade E$13.62+10.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
36
Grade E$14.99-6.3% Next Q
Current
33
Grade E$14.05-8.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (41) → E (33)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ERAS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ERAS currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.42) and Max Pain ($14.75) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.49.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ERAS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ERAS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 33%NO 67%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ERAS Stock dropped -2.09% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Erasca Inc. (ERAS) dropped -2.09% to $14.05, trading at 54% of its 52-week range ($2.11 – $24.28). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 54% of its 52-week range ($2.11 – $24.28) with RSI-14 at 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $14.05 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live ERAS Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ERAS)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ERAS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ERAS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +38.56%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $14.98H $14.98L $14.05C $14.05VOL 3.75M
RES: $18.62SUP: $10.94SMA50: $15.42SMA200: $15.03
$22.63$18.36$14.09$9.82$5.54RES $18.62SUP $10.94$14.052026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ERAS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ERAS Butterfly Map → + Track ERAS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -21.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ERAS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ERAS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ERAS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ERAS)

Health Care Rank #665 of 1015 ⚔️ PTCT vs ERAS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ERAS vs. PTCT, TVTX, COGT, DNTH)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Erasca Inc. (ERAS) ranks #665 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #162 by equity capitalization ($5.02B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PTCT leads on earnings valuation at 7.9x trailing P/E, while PTCT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. PTCT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with ERAS at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ERAS ACTIVE
Erasca Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -2.09% $5.02B Benchmark Subject
PTCT
PTC Therapeutics Inc.
C 63/100 7.9x — 85.0% +1.52% $5.01B /ptct-vs-eras →
TVTX
Travere Therapeutics Inc.
D+ 52/100 — 96.0% -13.0% -2.24% $4.75B /tvtx-vs-eras →
COGT
Cogent Biosciences Inc.
D- 42/100 — — -35.0% -4.16% $5.38B /cogt-vs-eras →
DNTH
Dianthus Therapeutics Inc.
D- 39/100 — — -30.7% -0.16% $4.61B /dnth-vs-eras →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001761918 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Erasca Inc. (ERAS) reported GAAP revenue of $394.5M (-21.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $502.8M , and -0.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$124.5M, operating cash flow of -$95.5M, and free cash flow of -$95.6M (+12.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, ERAS closed FY2025 with $396.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $394.5M -$124.5M -$95.5M -$95.6M $396.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $502.8M -$161.7M -$109.4M -$109.5M $502.5M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $396.3M -$125.0M -$101.2M -$101.2M — —

3. ERAS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ERAS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Erasca Inc. (NASDAQ: ERAS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $14.05 (-2.09% 1D, market cap $5.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ERAS ranks #665 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ERAS compare to PTCT and TVTX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ERAS carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PTCT (PTC Therapeutics Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 7.9x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $5.01B) and TVTX (Travere Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.0%, cap $4.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PTCT leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while PTCT leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ERAS?

Per ERAS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001761918), Erasca Inc. generated $394.5M in revenue (-21.5% YoY), -$124.5M in net income, and -$95.6M in free cash flow against $396.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ERAS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ERAS last traded at $14.05 (-2.09% on volume of 4,428,220 shares), positioning the stock -8.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($15.42) and -6.52% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.03). Across its 52-week range of $2.11 to $24.28, ERAS sits at the 53.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($12.29 to $15.81).

Direct Sub-Reports: ERAS RQD Cockpit ERAS 12M Forecast ERAS Earnings & Move ERAS Dividends & DRIP ERAS Insiders & 13F ERAS Whale Options ERAS Profit Sankey ERAS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 33/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ERAS — Erasca Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Erasca Inc. (ERAS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 33/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $14.05 (-2.09% 1D, market capitalization $5.02B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -1.82%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Erasca Inc. (ERAS) is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The profile identifies the company as a biotechnology issuer with a market capitalization of $5.2B. Reported revenue in the SEC financials is — for each period shown.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Erasca Inc. (ERAS) reported $394.5M in annual revenue (up from $502.8M in FY2024, -21.5% YoY) and -$124.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($396.3M revenue, -$125.0M net income) through FY2025, ERAS scaled operating cash flow to -$95.5M and free cash flow to -$95.6M, backed by $396.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 33/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -1.82% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.11 – $24.28 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), ERAS carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can ERAS sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $394.5M and free cash flow of -$95.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ERAS's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ERAS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Erasca Inc. (ERAS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ERAS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ERAS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $14.05?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ERAS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ERAS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $17.51 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock has run up sharply, and the balance sheet, at 10 of 20 in the RQD framework, is the strongest pillar and carries a 0.5 Debt/E

Picked up a starter position in ERAS in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $14.35. The stock has run up sharply, and the balance sheet, at 10 of 20 in the RQD framework, is the strongest pillar and carries a 0.5 Debt/Equity ratio.. Trading inside a $2.59–$24.28 52-week range with -1.82% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.19 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $14.35

The company reports $0.0M revenue, ROIC of -35%, negative free cash flow in every period shown, and an insider conviction pillar of onl

Careful chasing ERAS at $14.35. The company reports $0.0M revenue, ROIC of -35%, negative free cash flow in every period shown, and an insider conviction pillar of only 3 of 20.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $11.19 on multiple compression.

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