MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why EOLS Stock slipped -1.51% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$7.52 -1.51% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.49
Evolus Inc. (EOLS) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 21/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $496.7M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.49 (-0.46%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (21/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EOLS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (21/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY EOLS SCORES 21/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (29% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 67% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+5/20 pts (24% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.1% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$7.73-8.2% Next Q
29
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$7.10-1.3% Next Q
26
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$7.01+7.3% Next Q
24
CurrentGrade E$7.52-11.6% Hist 90D α
21
Trajectory: E (29) → E (21)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EOLS Turnaround Squeeze
While EOLS currently carries a cautious 21/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.98) and Max Pain ($7.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.78.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EOLS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “EOLS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why EOLS Stock slipped -1.51% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Evolus Inc. (EOLS) slipped -1.51% to $7.52, trading at 67% of its 52-week range ($3.86 – $9.31). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 67% of its 52-week range ($3.86 – $9.31) with RSI-14 at 46.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.1% around $7.52 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 66.3% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live EOLS Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EOLS)
- ✓Walkthrough of EOLS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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EOLS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +39.52%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $7.48H $7.56L $7.24C $7.52VOL 793.6K
RES: $10.57SUP: $6.98SMA50: $7.98SMA200: $6.26
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
EOLS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +11.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EOLS today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EOLS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EOLS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EOLS)
Health Care Rank #1009 of 1016
⚔️ CTMX vs EOLS Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (EOLS vs. CTMX, OVID, MPLT, PHAT)
Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Evolus Inc. (EOLS) ranks #1009 by composite RQD confidence (21/100, grade E) and #455 by equity capitalization ($496.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EOLS leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CTMX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -20.5% ROIC and — gross margin. PHAT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with EOLS at 21/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EOLS
ACTIVE
Evolus Inc. | E | 21/100 | — | 66.3% | -35.0% | -1.51% | $496.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| CTMX CytomX Therapeutics Inc. | E | 20/100 | — | — | -20.5% | -2.97% | $499.0M | /ctmx-vs-eols → |
| OVID Ovid Therapeutics Inc. | D- | 40/100 | — | — | -28.5% | +4.49% | $500.0M | /ovid-vs-eols → |
| MPLT MapLight Therapeutics Inc. | D- | 39/100 | — | — | -32.4% | -3.26% | $500.1M | /mplt-vs-eols → |
| PHAT Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | 87.1% | -35.0% | -0.95% | $503.2M | /phat-vs-eols → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001570562In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Evolus Inc. (EOLS) reported GAAP revenue of $297.2M (+11.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $266.3M , and +47.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$51.6M, operating cash flow of -$42.3M, and free cash flow of -$45.7M (-134.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, EOLS closed FY2025 with $225.9M in total assets against $146.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $297.2M | -$51.6M | -$42.3M | -$45.7M | $225.9M | $146.1M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $266.3M | -$50.4M | -$18.0M | -$19.5M | $232.6M | $121.5M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $202.1M | -$61.7M | -$34.0M | -$34.0M | — | — |
3. EOLS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs EOLS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Evolus Inc. (NASDAQ: EOLS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $7.52 (-1.51% 1D, market cap $496.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, EOLS ranks #1009 in composite RQD confidence.
How does EOLS compare to CTMX and OVID in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), EOLS carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 66.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, CTMX (CytomX Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.5%, cap $499.0M) and OVID (Ovid Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.5%, cap $500.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EOLS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CTMX leads on capital efficiency (-20.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EOLS?
Per EOLS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001570562), Evolus Inc. generated $297.2M in revenue (+11.6% YoY), -$51.6M in net income, and -$45.7M in free cash flow against $225.9M in total assets and $146.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is EOLS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
EOLS last traded at $7.52 (-1.51% on volume of 789,244 shares), positioning the stock -5.76% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.98) and +20.13% above its 200-day simple moving average ($6.26). Across its 52-week range of $3.86 to $9.31, EOLS sits at the 67.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.1% ($6.76 to $8.28).
EOLS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is EOLS stock moving today?
Why EOLS Stock slipped -1.51% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.