MARKET WIREYahoo • 9d ago
Will Zillow Stock Ever Get Back To Its Old High?For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Why DOUG Stock surged +2.56% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$1.60 +2.56% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.60
Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $145.4M
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Is DOUG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Douglas Elliman Inc. (NYSE: DOUG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $1.60 (+2.56% 1D, market cap $145.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, DOUG ranks #729 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does DOUG compare to CMTG and AOMR in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), DOUG carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 52.5%. By comparison, CMTG (Claros Mortgage Trust Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.9%, cap $166.5M) and AOMR (Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 3.8x, ROIC 16.5%, cap $169.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AOMR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while DOUG leads on capital efficiency (52.5% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DOUG?
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Per DOUG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001878897), Douglas Elliman Inc. generated $1.03B in revenue (+3.8% YoY), $15.2M in net income, and -$17.2M in free cash flow against $444.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.60 (+0.27%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DOUG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY DOUG SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (23% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (21% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$1.55-4.5% Next Q
40
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$1.48+7.4% Next Q
43
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$1.59+0.6% Next Q
45
CurrentGrade D$1.60-5.6% Hist 90D α
48
Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a DOUG Turnaround Squeeze
While DOUG currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.64) and Max Pain ($1.68) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.18.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DOUG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “DOUG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why DOUG Stock surged +2.56% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) surged +2.56% to $1.60, trading at 13% of its 52-week range ($1.38 – $3.03). Stretched risk/reward at 10x P/E (53% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 13% of its 52-week range ($1.38 – $3.03) with RSI-14 at 49.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10% around $1.60 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live DOUG Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 13d ago
Jeff Bezos’ Florida Real Estate Empire Could Be Growing With $69 Million Golden Beach Mansion: ReportA $69.5 million oceanfront mansion in Golden Beach, Florida, has reportedly been linked to Amazon.com Inc. founder Jeff Bezos, although his involvement in the purchase has not been confirmed. The 17,500-square-foot estat
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring DOUG)
- ✓Walkthrough of DOUG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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DOUG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.40%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $1.59H $1.60L $1.54C $1.60VOL 480.3K
RES: $2.10SUP: $1.34SMA50: $1.64SMA200: $1.90
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
DOUG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-2.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +3.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DOUG today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DOUG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DOUG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DOUG)
Financials Rank #729 of 1096
⚔️ CMTG vs DOUG Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (DOUG vs. CMTG, AOMR, CHCI, BEEP)
Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) ranks #729 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #930 by equity capitalization ($145.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AOMR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while DOUG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 52.5% ROIC and — gross margin. CHCI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with DOUG at 48/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOUG
ACTIVE
Douglas Elliman Inc. | D | 48/100 | 9.6x | — | 52.5% | +2.56% | $145.4M | Benchmark Subject |
| CMTG Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. | E | 34/100 | — | — | -31.9% | 0.00% | $166.5M | /cmtg-vs-doug → |
| AOMR Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc. | D | 46/100 | 3.8x | — | 16.5% | +0.69% | $169.0M | /aomr-vs-doug → |
| CHCI Comstock Holding Companies Inc. (Class A) | C | 63/100 | 11.3x | — | 24.4% | +2.75% | $192.1M | /chci-vs-doug → |
| BEEP Mobile Infrastructure Corporation | D- | 40/100 | — | — | -15.2% | -0.39% | $104.5M | /beep-vs-doug → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001878897In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) reported GAAP revenue of $1.03B (+3.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $995.6M , and +8.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $15.2M, operating cash flow of -$13.9M, and free cash flow of -$17.2M (+45.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, DOUG closed FY2025 with $444.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.03B | $15.2M | -$13.9M | -$17.2M | $444.4M | $0 |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $995.6M | -$76.3M | -$26.0M | -$31.5M | $493.9M | $32.7M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $955.6M | -$42.6M | -$30.4M | -$30.4M | — | — |
3. DOUG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs DOUG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Douglas Elliman Inc. (NYSE: DOUG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $1.60 (+2.56% 1D, market cap $145.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, DOUG ranks #729 in composite RQD confidence.
How does DOUG compare to CMTG and AOMR in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), DOUG carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 52.5%. By comparison, CMTG (Claros Mortgage Trust Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.9%, cap $166.5M) and AOMR (Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 3.8x, ROIC 16.5%, cap $169.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AOMR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while DOUG leads on capital efficiency (52.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DOUG?
Per DOUG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001878897), Douglas Elliman Inc. generated $1.03B in revenue (+3.8% YoY), $15.2M in net income, and -$17.2M in free cash flow against $444.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is DOUG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
DOUG last traded at $1.60 (+2.56% on volume of 325,384 shares), positioning the stock -2.44% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.64) and -15.79% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.90). Across its 52-week range of $1.38 to $3.03, DOUG sits at the 13.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.0% ($1.44 to $1.76).
DOUG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is DOUG stock moving today?
Why DOUG Stock surged +2.56% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 10x P/E (53% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.