MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why CNL Stock dropped -2.85% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$11.24 -2.85% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.16
Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.04B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.16 (-0.70%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CNL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CNL SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (24% of score)
SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 0.7% FCF Margin ($29.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$12.06-7% Next Q
58
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$11.21-7.5% Next Q
55
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$10.37+8.4% Next Q
53
CurrentGrade D$11.24-1.4% Hist 90D α
50
Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CNL Turnaround Squeeze
While CNL currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.09) and Max Pain ($11.80) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $23.07.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CNL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CNL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CNL Stock dropped -2.85% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL) dropped -2.85% to $11.24, trading at 12% of its 52-week range ($9.77 – $21.97). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 12% of its 52-week range ($9.77 – $21.97) with RSI-14 at 37.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.4% around $11.24 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $29.2M annual free cash flow.
Live CNL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CNL)
- ✓Walkthrough of CNL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
CNL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -38.04%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $10.54H $11.24L $10.19C $11.24VOL 351.8K
RES: $17.30SUP: $10.03SMA50: $13.09SMA200: $15.26
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CNL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CNL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CNL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CNL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CNL)
Industrials Rank #301 of 485
⚔️ PSUS vs CNL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (CNL vs. PSUS, DEC, SLSR, HSLV)
Industry: Diversified Equities (43 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL) ranks #301 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #252 by equity capitalization ($1.04B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CNL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while DEC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.5% ROIC and — gross margin. PSUS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with CNL at 50/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNL
ACTIVE
Collective Mining Ltd. | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -2.85% | $1.04B | Benchmark Subject |
| PSUS Pershing Square USA Ltd. | C- | 61/100 | — | — | — | +0.79% | $1.00B | /psus-vs-cnl → |
| DEC Diversified Energy Company | D | 51/100 | — | — | 11.5% | -0.41% | $1.12B | /dec-vs-cnl → |
| SLSR Solaris Resources Inc. | D+ | 52/100 | — | — | — | -0.72% | $1.15B | /slsr-vs-cnl → |
| HSLV Highlander Silver Corp. | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | — | -2.75% | $934.2M | /hslv-vs-cnl → |
2. CNL Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics
TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOTCollective Mining Ltd. (CNL) operates in Diversified Equities (Industrials) with an equity capitalization of $1.04B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.
3. CNL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CNL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Collective Mining Ltd. (NASDAQ: CNL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $11.24 (-2.85% 1D, market cap $1.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, CNL ranks #301 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CNL compare to PSUS and DEC in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), CNL carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, PSUS (Pershing Square USA Ltd.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.00B) and DEC (Diversified Energy Company) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 11.5%, cap $1.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CNL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while DEC leads on capital efficiency (11.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CNL?
For Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #301 in Industrials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CNL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CNL last traded at $11.24 (-2.85% on volume of 243,101 shares), positioning the stock -14.13% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.09) and -26.34% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.26). Across its 52-week range of $9.77 to $21.97, CNL sits at the 12.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.4% ($9.85 to $12.63).
CNL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CNL stock moving today?
Why CNL Stock dropped -2.85% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.